Text Products for FWS Issued by JKL

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Versions: 1
000
FNUS73 KJKL 151408
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for Cherry Tree Knob...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1008 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...An approaching cold front brings a small chance of
showers or a stray thunderstorm to portions of eastern Kentucky later
today and into this evening. However, the burn site should be on
the southern threshold of this convection, with only about a 15
percent chance of seeing any showers or thunderstorms by this
evening. This will then quickly taper off overnight with loss of
daytime heating and mixing. Winds will generally be out of the SW
to WSW today, maxing at 10 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph, with
RH dropping to about 37 percent by this afternoon. Winds should
become light and variable by tonight. Tomorrow (Tuesday), will
also generally be dry across this area, with RH dropping to around
31 percent and winds becoming more southerly. A better chance of
a more widespread wetting rainfall will move in for Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with the passage of more potent system.
Temperatures will average above normal through much of the work
week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Dewpoint............53 increasing to 55 in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...81.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to marginal (29300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to good (70800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................28 early in the morning increasing to 95 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  43  43  40  38  43  42  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  71  73  77  79  80  81  80
Dewpoint........51  53  55  56  56  54  54  54
RH..............53  53  53  48  45  41  39  41
Aparnt tmp (F)..69  71  73  77  79  80  81  80
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  10  12  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.10  13  14  13  14  15  15  15
Ridge wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Ridge wind spd..10  10  12  12  13  13  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.3 3.0 4.4 5.1 5.4 6.0 6.3
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  15  15  13  12  13  14  14
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............28  43  53  66  48  53  61  95
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  29  37  49  51  58  71  75
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2000, then 1 until
                    2400, then 2 until 0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Dewpoint............55.
Max apparent temp...79.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph this evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph overnight, then shifting to the
                    northwest overnight shifting to the southeast
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph decreasing to around 2
                    mph after 3 am.
Vent Rate...........Fair (46500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (400
                    knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................62 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........40     34     50     72     59     69
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     20     10
LAL.............1      1      1      2      2      1
Temp............79     74     71     67     64     63
Dewpoint........54     56     57     57     57     57
RH..............42     53     61     70     78     81
Aparnt tmp (F)..79     74     71     67     64     63
20 ft wind......W 9    W 7    SW 5   SE 5   NW 5   S 5
20 ft wind gust.13     10     8      8      9      8
Ridgetop wind...W 10   W 8    SW 6   SE 6   NW 6   S 6
Mix hgt (ft)....4800   400    300    200    200    200
Transport wind..W 12   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 3   SW 2
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      4      5
ADI.............62     2      3      3      2      2
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..47     2      1      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Dewpoint............57 decreasing to 50 late in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...80.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......South 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 13
                    mph in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    south around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor (400 knot-ft) increasing to marginal
                    (30600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 46 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........70        68        90        72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............62        66        74        80
Dewpoint........56        58        58        52
RH..............81        75        57        38
Aparnt tmp (F)..62        66        74        80
20 FT wind......S 5G9     S 6G10    S 8G13    S 9G14
Ridgetop wind...S 6       S 7       S 9       S 10
Mix hgt (ft)....200       1000      3200      3100
Transport wind..SW 2      S 6       SW 12     SW 13
LVORI...........5         4         1         1
ADI.............1         7         46        40
Haines index....3         3         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         5         32        33
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...JMW
Requested by...David Degennaro
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410905.0/JKL
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.degennaro@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
