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000
FXUS62 KKEY 130755
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As expected a nocturnal surge developed shortly after midnight and
has been producing fresh northerly breezes across all of the
coastal waters. Sensors along the reef are averaging near 20 knots
with occasional gusts near 25 knots. Dry air continues to filter
in across the Keys with dew points comfortably in the upper 50s to
near 60 degrees. Otherwise, some high clouds are streaming in with
no precipitation echoes detected on the KBYX radar.

High pressure will move across the north Gulf coast and into the
southeast U.S. over the weekend. This will allow for winds to
gradually clock around to the northeast and east. As it does,
breezes will initially lull this afternoon but freshen breifly
again tonight into Sunday afternoon. Thereafter the high will
continue to slide east, eventually settling across the western
Atlantic, where it will wax and wane in strength. As a result we
expect breezes to peak and lull Monday through Wednesday.

At the same time, low level moisture will ever so slowly be
returning across the region though it will take until Wednesday
before dew points rise above 70 degrees. Likewise, it may take
until Thursday before we see our first chance of showers and even
then it will be slight at 10 percent. Towards the end of the
forecast period, a secondary high will slide east from the Central
Plains and eventually replace the first high. This will lead to a
period of backing winds to the north and northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters this
morning due to fresh northerly breezes. A nocturnal surge is
ongoing this morning with fresh northeast breezes and will slacken
gradually through the morning today. Thereafter, high pressure
will slide into the western Atlantic and remain through the
remainder of the forecast period with peaks and lulls expected. A
period of moderate to fresh easterlies is becoming increasingly
likely Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals through the
TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to continue to remain
northerly through around daybreak with gusts of 17 to 20 knots
causing a crosswind at both terminals. Winds veer to the north to
northeast for the morning hours, with a brief lull to the gusts in
the afternoon. Then northeast to east winds are expected during the
late afternoon and evening hours with occasional gusts picking back
up again between 17 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in 2004, a large, long-lived supercell tracked eastward
from the Dry Tortugas, affecting Key West just before sunrise. It
produced a daily-record 1.89" of rain at Key West International
Airport.

On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 89F was
last recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date
back to 1951.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  79  71  80  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  80  71  80  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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