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000
FXUS63 KLBF 142330
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Red Flag Warning behind a dryline across portions of
   southwest Nebraska Monday afternoon and evening, with low
   relative humidity values and southeast winds 25 to 35 mph
   gusting to around 40 mph.

-  Strong to severe storms are possible across much of western
   and north central Nebraska beginning late Monday afternoon
   into the evening and overnight hours.

-  Showers and thunderstorms linger into Tuesday, with the
   greatest rainfall east of Highway 83. Strong northwest winds
   may gust in excess of 55 miles per hour Tuesday afternoon
   near and west of Highway 83 and across areas to the east
   Tuesday night.

-  Below average temperatures then persist late this week and
   into the weekend, with continued precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight, an upper low will begin to eject eastward into the
Southern Rockies, with surface low pressure deepening across
the Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado. Surface winds will
strengthen from the southeast tonight and lead to increasing
moisture advection. This will also keep lows more mild across
the area, in the lower 50s.

Monday, an upper low will emerge onto the Front Range of Colorado
during the afternoon, with an associated surface low lifting from
northeast Colorado into the panhandle and far southwest Nebraska by
late afternoon. As this occurs, a northwest to southeast oriented
dryline will advance into the southeast panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska. The 12Z CAMS and deterministic models differ on the
position and magnitude of the dry air behind the dryline. The 12Z
HREF mean seems reasonable, lifting the dryline to a Hay Springs
through Tryon, North Platte and Curtis line by 00Z Tuesday. Where
precisely this boundary is positioned will have an impact on both
fire and severe weather concerns. Critical fire weather conditions
are expected to develop behind the dryline, and further details on
this threat can be found in the fire weather section below.

Ahead of the dryline, increasing southeasterly flow will bring
moderate moisture advection into much of the Sandhills and north
central Nebraska, with dewpoints climbing into the 50s. MUCAPES will
easily range from 1000-2000 J/KG and even as high as 2500 J/KG
across central areas early evening. Deep layer wind profiles look
ample to support organized updrafts, with deep meridional flow aloft
leading to elongated hodographs with height. With a surface warm
front lifting northward through the area during the late afternoon,
low-level flow remains backed and will lead to good curvature in the
lowest few kilometers of the hodograph as the low-level jet
strengthens near/after sunset). The environment looks to be
supportive for initial discrete supercell development near the
dryline late afternoon into early evening, then near the warm front
across central into north central Nebraska during the evening,
as shown by the HRRR. A capping inversion aloft near H7 may
limit convective initiation through much of the afternoon,
although the latest CAMS show more development than previously.

Should convection develop prior to sunset, discrete supercells are
favored. After dark, a cold front looks to overtake the dryline as
the surface low ejects across the area and could lead to more
widespread convective development. This is supported by the 12Z
HREF. Interacting updrafts along the cold front may limit the hail
threat some, along with any damaging wind threat as the boundary
layer cools and storms may become elevated across north central
Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

On Tuesday, the upper low is forecast to move from far northwest
Kansas into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon. This will bring
likely to categorical POPs through the day for showers and
thunderstorms. Wraparound rainfall behind the low will bring the
higher rainfall amounts from a half inch to over an inch to
areas mainly east of Valentine through Broken Bow. Rainfall
amounts look considerably less.

As the deep surface low begins to slowly push off to the east
late Tuesday morning, flow will quickly strengthen from the
northwest behind the surface cold front. Strong flow aloft looks
will mix to the surface from increasing cold advection. Winds
gusting in excess of 55 miles per hour Tuesday afternoon are
possible mainly near and west of Highway 83, and areas to the
east Tuesday night. The system finally exits the area into
Tuesday night, with precip ending from west to east.

Wednesday looks dry until later afternoon across the west, as
another trough moves into the Northern Plains. This looks to
bring likely chances for rain showers behind a cold front
pushing through the area Wednesday night. Some snow could mix
into the rain across western Nebraska, largely diurnally driven
as the column cools aloft. The upper flow remain fairly zonal
Thursday through Sunday with lows chances for showers, and
possibly some snow showers. Highs to only reach the 40s to low
50s most days with lows upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. A period of southeasterly LLWS sets up
across the area at 40 to 50kts tonight into mid-morning on
Monday, impacting both KLBF and KVTN. Shortly thereafter,
southeasterly winds ramp up with widespread gusts of 30 to 40kts
expected, continuing through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across portions of southwest Nebraska Monday afternoon behind a
dryline. As temperatures reach the upper 80s, dewpoints will
quickly fall and single digit relative humidity values are
anticipated near and west of the HWY 61 corridor south of I-80.
Strong south winds are also anticipated, sustained at 20 to 30
miles per hour and gusting as high as 45 mph. Any fire starts
will likely spread rapidly and quickly become out of control.
Near critical fire weather conditions will also exist to the
north across southern portions of zone 204.

Of additional concern, a cold front will move into the area late
Monday night, with winds quickly shifting from south to northwest
Tuesday morning. Northwest winds will then strengthen Tuesday morning
and the afternoon, with gusts in excess of 55 miles per hour
possible near and west of Highway 83.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon
and Monday night, with more widespread showers and some thunderstorms
Tuesday.

Cool weather Tuesday through Saturday will maintain high
humidity. There are no fire weather concerns during this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NEZ210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg