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000
FXUS64 KLCH 160918
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
418 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Currently the upper level low is north of the OK panhandle with the
front extending from there into TX. Parts of TX and LA are
receiving some isolated showers, however it appears that this
activity is not reaching the surface in out area. The upper low
will move NNE into the Central to Northern Plains over the day as
the front stalls out, never making it through our region. With
that being said, cooler and pleasant conditions simply are not in
the forecast at the moment.

We will be looking at humid, warm, and windy conditions today. While
it appears less likely that a Wind Advisory will be issued, we
will still have gusty southerly flow over the day as the pressure
gradient tightens. Similar humid and warm conditions will continue
for the remainder of the period, with a chance of isolated
showers and storms on Thursday across the northern Counties and
Parishes.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

By Friday, a quasi stationary boundary along the ARKLATEX region
stretches across the Appalachian Mountains. With the northern
stream surface above the Great Lakes low pressure slowly weakening
and being absorbed by the longwave trough pattern extending south
from the Polar regions into central Canada, the pattern for the
long range remains a bit unsettled with respect to precipitation
impacts and timing during the weekend ahead for SETX / SWLA.
Temperatures will peak Friday and Saturday into the upper 80’s
across south central portions portions of the CWA while highs keep
a few degrees cooler near coastal locations. Once the front
passes through Sunday, temperatures during the early part of next
week will dip areawide 7- 9°F lower than forecast throughout this
week. A rebound into the mid 80’s with little signal for
precipitation is expected while winds returning southeasterly
again by Monday night, next week.


As mentioned, the larger focus in the long term is currently the
precipitation over the upcoming weekend. Currently, probs for any
mode of severe weather remain too low for any notation in severe
weather guidance products, per latest SPC and WPC analysis. That
said, forecast soundings still indicate the environment can support
thunderstorms as the boundary sinks south along western / central
coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. POPS have been introduced
throughout portions of Saturday, where moisture advection abuts the
front, increasing into Sunday where more organized precipitation is
favored over the area. The upper level pattern continues to develop
subsidence over the Midwest behind the frontal pattern Sunday
evening and remains consistently progressive in accelerating into
the Gulf of Mexico through the morning of the 22nd (Monday). Signals
for precipitation quickly drop off early Monday as the ridge pattern
keeps the weather relatively benign trending further into the work
week.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low clouds continue to produce MVFR conditions with patches of
VFR. Winds will remain robust from the south around 5 to 15 knots
with occasional gusts. Visibility restrictions will be unlikely
as winds will reduce fog formation. After sunrise VFR conditions
will return.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Modest and gusty south winds will continue and strengthen a bit
today as an area of low pressure forms and deepens over the
Plains. Small craft are advised to exercise caution. Winds will
ease on Wednesday as the low lifts off toward the Great Lakes,
with a generally light onshore flow prevailing into the weekend.
Precipitation chances are negligible until the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  69  85  68 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  82  70  81  70 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  84  72  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  83  69  84  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14