146
FXUS64 KLCH 050859
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
359 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broken line of convection has developed across the region this
morning in what will be the first wave of convection associated
with another upper level disturbance traversing the region today.
CAMS guidance was actually quite consistent in the development of
this activity and continues to be in good agreement on another MCS
pushing through the area later today. With most of the region
still very saturated from rainfall over the last several days,
southeast Texas and parts of western Louisiana are particularly
susceptible to flash flooding resulting from high rainfall rates.
No changes were made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch this
morning that covers Southeast Texas and a Flash Flood Warning has
already been issued for Tyler county due to the heavy rain already
observed. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have again
developed this morning thanks to light winds and very wet soils.

The MCS is expected to clear the area by early this evening with
precip largely ending by sunset. Surface winds overnight will be
marginally light enough for the development of some patchy fog.
Monday is looking somewhat drier. However, another weak
disturbance is being picked up by most guidance and while this one
isn`t nearly as strong as the one moving across the region today,
it looks like it will have enough moisture with it to initialize
isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection tomorrow.

Some drier air and zonal flow aloft will finally offer a break
from convection Tuesday with afternoon highs climbing into the mid
to upper 80s beneath the clearer skies.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The warming trend continues into Wednesday with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region which will yield
apparent temperatures close to 100 across parts of central
Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas. The next,
thankfully low, chance of rain looks to come Thursday into
Thursday night with the passage of a late season cold front that
looks to bring some noticeably cooler, drier air by next weekend.
Long range temperatures have lows down into the mid 50s across
central Louisiana and lower 60s to just off the immediate
coastline. This may be our last gasp of spring before the
notorious gulf coast summer kicks into high gear.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Earlier VFR is transitioning to MVFR/IFR, mainly for SETX/SW LA,
but will expand area wide into the early morning hours. As we move
into the early morning hours, chances for showers/storms increase
from west to east as well. Expect further reduction in CIGs/VSBYs
under heavier showers/storms.

There remains some uncertainty as to when activity will decrease,
but current thinking is by early Sunday evening for most locales.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet
will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop through the day before diminishing
this evening with rain chances remaining limited thereafter through
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  66  85  70 /  80  20  30   0
LCH  81  70  83  73 /  60  20  20   0
LFT  85  72  86  75 /  50  20  20   0
BPT  82  71  84  73 /  70  20  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-
     615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66