488
FXUS64 KLIX 190445
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

As an H5 shortwave continues downstream over the Panhandle of
Florida this afternoon, the surface cold front will very slowly
continue to move southward. Convection is still firing and back-
building along this front, which is mostly driven by the cold
pool at this juncture with mean level flow becoming more in line
with the orientation of the frontal system. Surface high pressure
will build into the region this evening and overnight, which
should allow for more light and variable winds to take shape. With
skies clearing over much of the CWFA and fairly moist soils from
recent heavy rainfall, some radiational fog will be possible. SREF
probs aren`t too extreme with less than 1 miles visibilities,
however, there is a strong enough signal for patchy fog after
midnight and lingering an hour or so after sunrise on Sunday. That
said, the fog favored spots, especially the cooler low spots
during radiational cooling events may see a more dense fog
situation develop. Again, guidance isn`t very bullish with this
solution as of yet, so no fog headlines, but something the
evening and overnight crew will need to monitor.

The story through Sunday and Sunday Night will again be the
overall pattern change from active to a drier pattern.
Northwesterly flow develops as a 594dam H5 heat bubble builds over
central Mexico. Ridging from this mid level high noses up the
Texas Gulf Coast and begins to overspread our region in wake of
the departing shortwave now exiting the area. With this occurring,
Sunday looks to be several degrees warmer, especially with the
added insolation with many of us climbing to or above 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The long term begins no different than much of the short term.
The upper level regime is a dry north or northwesterly flow,
again around the eastern periphery of the H5 heat bubble spreading
eastward across Mexico. The upper level ridging becomes a bit
more pronounced over the region going into Monday and Tuesday.
With the increasing heights and thicknesses, temperatures will
respond by continuing the warming trend. Early in the week the
warming trend will be a bit more tolerable. With the strong
insolation some mixing of dry air just off the deck will help
keep heat index values rather reasonable. This is of course with
surface high pressure around and little to no low level moisture
advection. That said, by Wednesday the high begins to move east and
brings back a more pronounced southerly return flow. Although good
news for coastal areas...this return flow and relatively low SSTs
over the shelf waters will help keep those areas slightly cooler.
The influx of moisture will cause inland areas to experience
climbing heat index values with moderation occuring. In fact, as
the upper level high continues to build east over the western Gulf
of Mexico, temperatures again continue to respond by gradually
increasing. Inland locations Thursday, Friday and perhaps beyond
will likely at least touch 100F "feels like" temps briefly during
the afternoon hours.

We will also be watching another front and parent shortwave move
generally toward the Midsouth region. The GFS and ECMWF have
aligned a bit better compared to yesterday with the GFS less
bullish in terms of bringing the front through our CWFA late week
or early next weekend. This will cause a more limited POP/QPF
signal as much of the better dynamics will reside north of our
region across northern Louisiana to northern Alabama. Cannot rule
out a shower or two in our interior southwest MS Counties, but the
current solution at this juncture is very limited in any rainfall
from Thursday through Friday. If the shortwave is a bit more
amplified, then the front could be a bit closer and rain chances
respectively increase, so some adjustment is still possible
through the medium range. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions continue this evening, with the only concern
whether radiation fog develops around sunrise. Most favored
terminals for IFR visibilities would be KMCB and KHUM, but cannot
rule out entirely anywhere. Any fog that does develop shoulld burn
off very quickly by about 14z, if not sooner, with little or no
cloud development during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Convection along the southward moving cold front will continue
through the afternoon. In and around these storms locally strong
gusty winds, hail, and enhanced wave heights will be possible.
This activity should move south and east out of our waters later
this evening and into the overnight. By Sunday a surface high
pressure should build into the region. This will bring down both
winds and seas. Beyond this weekend and going well into the start
of the new workweek, favorable marine conditions are generally in
the cards as a light to moderate southerly flow develop by mid to
late week. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  87  65  90 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  70  91  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  72  89  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  69  89  70  89 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  67  91  66  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF