Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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433 FXUS66 KLOX 030317 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 817 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...02/145 PM. Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. Increasing onshore flow as well as greater coverage of night and morning low clouds and fog will bring cooler temperatures to all areas Friday through Sunday. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the area to the north this weekend with a chance for light precipitation later Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying trend will develop next week. && .SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...02/207 PM. Temperatures today were overall fairly similar to Wednesday despite the offshore trends up north and the strong eddy that developed off the LA Coast last night. Interior areas (mountains and far interior valleys) did experience 3-6 degrees of warming with some additional lowering of humidities. Going forward, the trends are decidedly cooler through the weekend as another late system upper low moves into northern California Saturday. Models have come to a good consensus on the track, moving it inland north of the Bay area before sliding south along the eastern Sierra Sunday. This track, though still mostly inland, has enough southerly over-water trajectory to create some light rain (around a quarter inch) across the Central Coast later Saturday into Sunday. Less certainty on the southern extent of rain but ensembles indicate just very light precip amounts (under a tenth of an inch) south of Pt Conception. In the meantime, expect to see increasing marine layer stratus Friday and especially Saturday with cooler temperatures. Increasing onshore flow will lead to increasing west to southwest, especially Saturday afternoon across the mountains and deserts. May need some low end wind advisories for those areas. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/217 PM. The upper low will exit the area by Sunday night leading to warming temperatures Monday (3-6 degrees). Onshore flow will be much weaker and forecast gradients indicate the potential for some breezy north winds in the mountains and across southern Santa Barbara County early next week. After the warm up on Monday temperatures are expected to stay pretty steady next week with just minor day to day variations. Will likely have some marine layer clouds returning to coastal areas by mid week. Otherwise it looks like a fairly mundane weather pattern next week with very minimal impacts. && .AVIATION...03/0316Z. At 2327Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep with an inversion top at 4900 ft and a temperature of 16 C. High confidence in desert TAFs moderate confidence elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KSMX and KSBA. There is a 20% chance for brief cigs at KPRB. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could arrive as low as BKN008 and will lift through the period. An east wind component of around 5 kt is possible 09Z-15Z Fri, but will likely remain below 10 kt. KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of cigs will arrive as early as 07Z tonight. && .MARINE...02/133 PM. In the outer waters, an extended period of gusty winds are expected with periods of Gale Force possible through much of next week. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to increase to Gales (70-80% chance) this afternoon, then continue thru late tonight. Winds will likely drop to SCA levels late tonight thru Fri afternoon, then Gales are likely for the waters north of Point Conception (60-70% chance) late Fri afternoon thru late Fri night. Winds will drop Sat morning, possibly even below SCA levels, but seas will remain at SCA levels. SCA level winds are expected Sat afternoon thru Mon, with a 40% chance of Gales Sun afternoon/evening. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds and seas will continue thru late tonight. Then, SCA level winds are likely during the afternoon/eve hours Fri, Sun, and Mon (60-70% chance), with a 40-50% chance Sat afternoon/eve. In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in western portions of the channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours today and Fri (50% chance), and in most of the SBA Channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours Sat thru Mon. There is a 20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve. In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in NW portions (from Anacapa Island to Malibu) during the late afternoon/eve hours today and Fri. SCA level winds are likely during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Sun, especially in western portions, then there is a 40% chance Mon. There is a 20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/evening. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...DB/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox