859
FXUS66 KLOX 072115
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
215 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...07/212 PM.

Gusty northwest winds will turn northeast Wednesday into Friday.
Generally clear skies will continue through the week except for
some coastal low clouds and fog. Temperatures will remain around
to just above normal through early next week, with highs in the
70s to lower 80s common.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...07/159 PM.

The current northwest winds still look to increase through the
evening hours, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph (isolated to 55 mph)
focused over the northern mountains, the Antelope Valley, and
southern Santa Barbara County. There is a small chance that winds
will cross advisory levels in the Montecito Hills but if they do
it should be fairly localized. The current suite of Wind
Advisories will remain in play.

Cold air is starting to be deposited over the Great Basin, and
will continue to over the next few days thanks to a large low
pressure system over the Dakotas that will wobble to the west.
This will cause the winds to abruptly turn to northeasterly later
tonight, and remain dominant during the night and morning hours
through Friday (with onshore flow each late afternoon). These
winds will peak in strength on Wednesday, then gradually decrease
each day through Friday. During their peak, gusts should generally
vary between 25 and 40 mph over the favored mountains and valleys
of all counties, but especially over Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Isolated gusts to 50 mph should be expected, but do not
look widespread enough at this point to warrant any Wind
Advisories. These winds also do not look potent enough to punch
through the marine layer and down into the beaches. This means
that there is still a window for some low clouds and fog each
morning along the coast, which looks to expand in coverage each
day as southeast winds strengthen. In fact, the pattern is right
for a southerly surge on Thursday morning where any low clouds
that form south of Point Conception moves north around the point
and into the Central Coast.

Expect temperatures to climb tomorrow thanks to the offshore flow
and clear skies. This is especially the case for the valleys,
where our local climatological guidance suggests temperatures
around 80 will be common in most valleys. Coastal areas will be at
the mercy of the marine layer, but look to warm up as well since
any clouds should clear by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/208 PM.

Ensemble models have a range of outcomes over the weekend,
concerning where the wobbling upper level low wants to go. The
most likely outcome is for steady increase of onshore flow
bringing more cool coastal clouds and gusty onshore winds over the
interior. To what magnitude however is still on the table. The
first half of next week, looks fairly benign, except for likely
continued strengthening of the onshore flow over the mountains and
interior, with further expansion of low clouds on the coastal
side. There are some indications of some warming for the second
half of next week with high pressure building in.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1837Z.

At 1030Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep, with an
inversion top at 4000 ft and a maximum temperature of 14 C.

Moderate confidence in TAF package. There is a 40% chance of no
cigs developing at KPRB, and a 30% of no cigs for KLAX/KLGB/KSMO.
Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours. Winds will
be gusty winds this afternoon for KPMD and KWJF, and there is a
40% chance of MVFR VSBYs in blowing dust for 20Z-04Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cig changes may be
off by +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance of no cigs
developing at all. No significant easterly wind component is
expected, with just a 10% chance of the east wind component
reaching 6-8 kts from 08-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...07/214 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through
tonight, Gale force winds are expected and GALE WARNINGS are in
effect. For Wednesday and Wednesday night, a combination of Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected. For
Thursday through Saturday, winds and seas will remain below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are likely this
afternoon and evening. For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA
level winds in the afternoon/evening hours. For Thursday through
Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel, SCA level winds are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Otherwise across the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zones 88-350-352-353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM
      PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 349-351-378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 6 PM PDT this evening
      through Wednesday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...RAT/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox