975
FXUS66 KLOX 080333
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
833 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...07/212 PM.

Gusty northwest winds will turn northeast Wednesday into Friday.
Generally clear skies will continue through the week except for
some coastal low clouds and fog. Temperatures will remain around
to just above normal through early next week, with highs in the
70s to lower 80s common.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/745 PM.

***UPDATE***

Clear skies covered the forecast area early this evening. There
were some low clouds noted along the SAN County coast and these
should expand some and move up the coast tonight as an eddy
develops. By late tonight, portions of the L.A. County coast
should have some low clouds and fog. Otherwise, the clear skies
will continue across the forecast area overnight.

Good northerly gradients this evening (e.g., -3.9 mb SBA-SMX at
02Z) were helping to bring gusty north winds to the southern SBA
County coast and Santa Ynez Mtns. Gusty NW to N winds will also
affect portions of the the SBA/VTU/L.A. County mtns into the
Antelope Vly and Santa Clarita Vly overnight. Wind gusts to
Advisory levels are expected, and a series of Wind Advisories
(LAXNPWLOX) are in effect thru late tonight for all these areas.
Elsewhere over portions of SLO/SBA Counties and some of the
foothills of VTU/L.A. Counties, breezy N to NE winds will prevail
overnight towards daybreak.

The current zone forecasts are in good shape and do not
anticipate any updates this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Cold air is starting to be deposited over the Great Basin, and
will continue to over the next few days thanks to a large low
pressure system over the Dakotas that will wobble to the west.
This will cause the winds to abruptly turn to northeasterly later
tonight, and remain dominant during the night and morning hours
through Friday (with onshore flow each late afternoon). These
winds will peak in strength on Wednesday, then gradually decrease
each day through Friday. During their peak, gusts should generally
vary between 25 and 40 mph over the favored mountains and valleys
of all counties, but especially over Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Isolated gusts to 50 mph should be expected, but do not
look widespread enough at this point to warrant any Wind
Advisories. These winds also do not look potent enough to punch
through the marine layer and down into the beaches. This means
that there is still a window for some low clouds and fog each
morning along the coast, which looks to expand in coverage each
day as southeast winds strengthen. In fact, the pattern is right
for a southerly surge on Thursday morning where any low clouds
that form south of Point Conception moves north around the point
and into the Central Coast.

Expect temperatures to climb tomorrow thanks to the offshore flow
and clear skies. This is especially the case for the valleys,
where our local climatological guidance suggests temperatures
around 80 will be common in most valleys. Coastal areas will be at
the mercy of the marine layer, but look to warm up as well since
any clouds should clear by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/208 PM.

Ensemble models have a range of outcomes over the weekend,
concerning where the wobbling upper level low wants to go. The
most likely outcome is for steady increase of onshore flow
bringing more cool coastal clouds and gusty onshore winds over the
interior. To what magnitude however is still on the table. The
first half of next week, looks fairly benign, except for likely
continued strengthening of the onshore flow over the mountains and
interior, with further expansion of low clouds on the coastal
side. There are some indications of some warming for the second
half of next week with high pressure building in.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0031Z.

At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep, with an
inversion top at 4300 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF package. There is a 30% chance
of no CIGs developing at KPRB, and a 30% of no CIGs for sites
KLAX/KLGB/KSMO. There is also a 20% chance of CIGs forming at KBUR
and KVNY, most likely in the IFR to low MVFR category if they do
form. The timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2
hours. For KPMD and KWJF, there is a 40% chance of MVFR VSBYs in
blowing dust through 04Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of cig changes
may be off by +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20-30% chance of no
cigs developing at all. An easterly wind component up to 8 knots is
expected between 09Z to 16Z, with just a 10% chance of the east
wind component reaching 10 kts during this time.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20%
chance of IFR to low MVFR CIGs forming between 12Z to 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...07/831 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. GALE
WARNINGS remain in effect through 3 AM Wednesday with gusts up to
35 knots. For Wednesday and Wednesday night, a combination of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected.
Thursday through Sunday winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are now likely
to persist through late tonight. For Wednesday, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon/evening hours. For
Thursday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast, except for a chance of weak
offshore winds along the coast from Point Mugu to Santa Monica.
There is a 10-20 percent chance of gusts up to 25 knots in this
area. Otherwise across the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 88-349>353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell/Sirard
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox