Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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632 FXUS63 KLSX 131931 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 231 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slow-moving upper trough will bring waves of showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region through Tuesday afternoon. An isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small hail remains possible through this evening, mainly from central into southeast Missouri. - After Tuesday evening, shower and thunderstorm chances will return late Wednesday through Friday. - Above normal temperatures will return for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A slow-moving upper trof and low will produce unsettled weather across the region through Tuesday evening as it progresses eastward into and through the Mississippi Valley. A series of vort maxes rotating through the trof along with diurnal heating will modulate the greatest precipitation chances and coverage during this time frame, however lesser precipitation chances will exist the entire duration. The first better defined vort max will rotate northeast across the CWA the remainder of this afternoon into early evening bringing a better organized band/wave of showers and some thunder. Thus far thunder has been at a minimum. Despite areas of weak surface- based CAPE of generally 1000+ J/KG, weak lapse rates and a good deal of low-mid level moisture have diminished MLCAPE, which seems to be a limiting factor thus far. There is a low chance of a strong storm through early evening, primarily across central and southeast MO, owing to slightly better deep layer shear, however the moist conditions and low DCAPE are not very favorable. There should diminishing coverage of precipitation to more scattered later this evening and overnight with an additional vort max tracking eastward providing some impetus. The moist low-levels and light winds are also a recipe for fog/stratus. The vertically stacked system and surface front will slide to the east on Tuesday and into the eastern Ohio Valley by early evening. Muted diurnal heating from breaks in the cloud cover should lead to an uptick in instability and the coverage of showers and some thunder on Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation chances should wind down on Tuesday evening as the upper trof continues to progress east into the Ohio Valley, potentially with fog/stratus in it`s wake into Wednesday morning. Glass && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An elongated and progressive northern stream upper trof will bring the next organized chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late Wednesday through Friday time frame. Differences in position and timing of short waves moving through the mean upper trof are resulting in probably a longer window of precipitation chances in the forecast than reality. The initial chance of showers and storms could as early as Wednesday night depending on the position of a lead vort max and forcing via a southwesterly LLJ along with a returning warm front. There is better agreement that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will peak Thursday morning through the afternoon into early evening along and ahead of an advancing cold front. A southern stream upper trof could linger the rain chances longer into Friday or early Saturday but there is a decent amount of spread in the specifics of the trof speed/structure with the LREF cluster analysis showing four variations in the larger scale flow, and thus lower predictability. It does appear we should see temperatures return to above normal for the upcoming weekend with the NBM showing the entire IQR above normal. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous this afternoon with a more organized band accompanied by better thunder potential moving to the northeast out of western MO. Outside of any showers and storms, VFR flight conditions are expected, with flight conditions dropping to MVFR with the more persistent and heavier rainfall. The overall coverage of showers and storms will diminish this evening, while extensive stratus and fog takes hold on the area with flight conditions overnight deteriorating to IFR. Flight conditions should then improve late Tuesday morning with an uptick in showers and a few thunderstorms beyond the valid TAF period on Tuesday afternoon. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX