Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 280507 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
A meandering sfc high pressure center will continue to have the
greatest influence on weather conditions in the short-term forecast.
Expect into Wednesday evening a persistent forecast of occasional
high clouds with winds becoming light and variable. Temperatures
given this colder airmass that continues to "stick around" will
remain below average overall with respect to both high and low
temperatures for late March climatological normals through Thursday
morning.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning will see the return of cold
weather products return as areas of frost are likely to be present
across most of the CWA due to the meandering sfc high pressure
center in the region, calm to light overnight winds, high RH values,
and cloud cover that will be minimal overall allowing for efficient
radiational cooling to take place overnight. A few isolated
locations may fall to the freezing mark, especially across far
northern Arkansas; however, widespread freezing temperatures are not
expected, but temperatures beginning early Thursday morning and
lasting until an hour or two after sunrise will be in the 33 to 36
degree range which may harm sensitive vegetation so it will be a
good idea to protect plants for one more night. No cold weather
products are anticipated to be needed Thursday night into Friday
morning.
Later in the day on Thursday and remaining into Friday will be a
warming trend as temperatures will uptick and a return to southerly
winds will assist this warming process. High temperatures on
Thursday will rebound quickly from the chilly morning lows as an
improvement to high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will be felt
on Thursday and that mercury continues to rise into the day on
Friday with high temperatures peaking in the low to upper 70s across
the CWA. Weather conditions look to remain quiet overall with
increasing clouds expected on Friday and increasing southerly winds
contributing to the increasing high temperatures each day apparent.
The beginning of the weekend and into Saturday and Sunday within the
long-term forecast period is sending a strong signal of fair and
warm weather across the state for the holiday weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Largely tranquil weather will prevail thru the weekend thanks to the
slow departure of sfc ridging to our SE and persistent ridging in
the mid/upper levels. Under the influence of this upper ridge, high
temps will warm into the 70s and 80s F by the weekend with lows in
the 50s and 60s F expected.
Meanwhile, a large upper trough will come ashore and translate thru
the Wrn states late weekend into early next week. Ahead of this, a
lee cyclone will gradually deepen and elongate with time as a lead
vort max ejects into the central Plains by Mon night. The resulting
pressure gradient will boost S/SWrly winds across AR, aiding in
large-scale moisture transport with dewpoints climbing into the
upper 50s and 60s by Sun/Mon.
Flow aloft will be robust as jet maxima in the H250 and H500 layers
overspread the moistening warm sector. Instability progs, while not
overly aggressive, do show modest MLCAPE over much of AR on Mon/Tues
with deep-layer shear in excess of 50 kts. Rain and thunder will
increase on Mon as a result, and with the parameter space as
described above, strong/severe storms will be possible in or near
the area. Ongoing model discrepancies preclude defining the areal
extent of any severe risk attm, however.
A cold front attendant to the aforementioned sfc cyclone will sweep
thru sometime Tues with storms ending NW-to-SE as this occurs. Some
wrap around moisture will maintain low-end PoP thru Tues evening and
a seasonably cool and dry air mass will move in by Wed. Highs then
will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions expected through the period with light sfc winds.
Some mid/high level clouds across eastern OK and western AR may
drift east across the state early this morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 66 45 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 68 43 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 65 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 67 43 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 68 46 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 67 45 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 68 44 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 67 43 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 64 42 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 66 44 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 68 43 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 66 40 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 64 44 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>056-062-063-066-067-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...67