Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
466 FXUS64 KMAF 011545 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1045 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 As expected, yesterday`s convection has shoved the dryline westward early this morning, and is hung up as far west as Carlsbad through the western high terrain. Between this and brisk southeasterly flow reinforcing moisture return, the atmosphere is quickly reset and primed for another round of storms this afternoon. With subtle cooling aloft thanks to a large scale upper trough pushing into the western CONUS, lapse rates are a touch more impressive than they already were yesterday. When the better moisture is factored in as well, CAPE values will exceed 3000 J/kg along/east of the dryline. Environmental shear remains on the low side (0-6km shear of only ~20kts...) but with the EL all the way up near 200mb, stronger winds above 6km can provide additional shear for the top-half of any convective storms. This should be enough to get splitting storms, in a similar setup to yesterday. The low level thermal ridge remains overhead this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 80s and low 90s by 18z, and with such good moisture, convective temperature will be easily achieved, with a relatively uncapped environment. Most HREF members agree in CI around 18-19z, and further west compared to yesterday, generally between the Davis Mountains and the Reeves/Pecos County line. Dominant right movers should take hold again through Pecos County with left movers shooting in the Permian Basin. With more CAPE and better convergence along the dryline, storm coverage should be higher than yesterday`s, and additional cold pool interactions should help initiate more storms as well as provide locally enhanced low level shear. With any storms (especially supercells), the main concerns will be strong wind gusts and large to very large hail (yesterday saw tennis-ball to baseball sized hail...). However, with less storm interference and better environmental shear, dominant right movers in Pecos County may produce a tornado or two. Given the nature of the storm splitting, it appears that there will be a minima in storm coverage somewhere in the east-central Permian Basin with left movers focused more for the west-central Basin and the right movers for the southern Basin and Stockton Plateau. Either way, with how early the storms get going, they will be quite progressive and be out of our jurisdiction by 01-02z this evening. After yet another muggy night with convective outflow and the LLJ reinforcing nocturnal moisture, the aforementioned upper trough aids in more eastward mixing of the dryline for Thursday afternoon into San Angelo`s area and a much quieter day is the result. Clear skies and dry air in place helps temperatures soar into the low 90s for most on Thursday. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 We end the week and head into the weekend with more busy weather. A cold front will arrive late Thursday and push toward the Pecos River before stalling Friday. Temperatures look slightly cooler behind the front with highs in the 80s, but still hot further west with many locations in the 90s. A few showers and isolated storms are possible Friday afternoon across mainly the eastern Permian Basin with no major impacts expected at this time. Things get a bit more interesting this weekend. The initial front will likely wash out and most areas will see a return to southeast winds and increasing low level moisture. At the same time another cold front is indicated by the models to push through the PH and into our region by Saturday afternoon. Increasing SW flow aloft along with an embedded shortwave moving overhead will help generate showers and storms along the cold front. There is still quite a bit of disagreement in the models, but some are indicating at least a couple of rounds of storms, mainly affecting the Permian Basin. We will continue to fine-tune the forecast, especially as we get into the range of the CAMs. Severe weather and flash flooding will be a possibility as it is now May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A line of convection is expected to develop this afternoon, and move through KMAF/KFST ~ 22Z. We`ve inserted a mention of this in the terminals, w/MVFR visibility and hail. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow will continue through Thursday morning. Once mixing commences late Thursday morning, winds will veer to west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 An active weather pattern will bring periods of stronger winds every few days. This will combine with persistent low RHs to produce at least near critical fire weather conditions much of the upcoming week. Wednesday, 20-ft winds will increase over the Guadalupe Mountains, Sacramento Foothills, and adjacent plains immediately to the east, combining with very critical fuels in these areas as ERCs climb over the 90th percentile. Drier conditions become more widespread Thursday, but stronger 20-ft winds are expected only at the higher elevations. More moist conditions arrive behind a cold front for most of the area Friday into the weekend, but higher elevations and areas west of the Pecos River will remain very dry. Further east, wetting rains are possible and could alleviate some of the concerns depending on rain amounts. A stronger storm system Monday could bring more widespread critical fire weather conditions to the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 62 93 59 / 50 30 0 0 Carlsbad 95 58 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 67 96 65 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 92 62 93 59 / 50 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 92 56 88 54 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 88 51 84 48 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 62 91 59 / 50 10 0 0 Odessa 90 63 91 59 / 40 10 0 0 Wink 95 59 93 57 / 20 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...44