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000
FXUS64 KMAF 150858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Early this morning, the nocturnal low-level jet is cranking, with
dewpoints steadily rising, ranging from the 40s across the Pecos
Valley and western Permian Basin to 50s across the Stockton Plateau
and eastern Permian Basin. Southeasterly winds have made it to Eddy
county, and this southeasterly return flow and associated fetch of
Gulf moisture is keeping temperatures on the mild side. As of 300 AM
CDT, temperatures are still in the 60s and 70s, with 50s found only
in the mountains, and lower 80s holding on along the Rio Grande.
Aloft, flow remains southwesterly ahead of a potent trough, which
per latest RUC analysis and water vapor imagery is currently
translating eastward across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners
region. This trough and its attendant jet and Pacific front will
drive our weather through the short term, with the trough progged to
move eastward across the Rockies and undergo rapid cyclogenesis as
it shifts into the Great Plains tonight.

The story for today can be summed up in four words - earth (dust),
wind, fire, and storms. Despite an extensive cirrus shield due to
the subtropical fetch of moisture aloft, the aforementioned trough`s
jet will move through the region today, resulting in a significant
uptick in winds, especially for locations along and west of the
Pecos River, and particularly across the mountains. While the core
of the jet (~115kt at 300 hPa) will be to the north of the region,
high winds are still expected to develop by late morning across the
aforementioned areas, and High Wind Warnings remain in effect for
the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains, with Wind Advisories in
effect further south and east. Winds drop off fairly quickly with
eastward extent across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, though
blowing dust is still expected, mainly during the afternoon and
early evening. While there`s a bit of uncertainty regarding how
strong winds will become given the cirrus clouds, clearing is
anticipated from west to east by mid- to late afternoon, and any
breaks in the clouds could produce local enhancement to wind speeds.
Given the southwesterly flow aloft as well as the downsloping
southwesterly winds at the surface, temperatures today will remain
well above normal, topping out in the 80s and 90s, with 100s along
the Rio Grande. Unfortunately, the hot temperatures and dry, windy
conditions will contribute to critical fire weather conditions and
very high to extreme fire danger across a large portion of the
region today. More on this can be found in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

While the strongest winds and critical fire weather conditions are
forecast across the western half of the forecast area, strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible across the east as the winds act
to sharpen up a dryline across the Permian Basin this afternoon. The
exact location of the dryline will dictate where and when storms
develop, though CAMs are in good agreement with an eastward shift of
storm development, with a majority of the activity not expected
until this evening when the dryline begins to retreat. The
retreating dryline will be met by the trough`s Pacific front as it
sweeps eastward across the region early this evening, and while
storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, any storms that do
develop would have the potential to become severe, with mainly a
large hail and damaging wind threat given instability on the order
of 1500-2000 J/kg and ample deep-layer shear. Storms that develop
would move quickly to the east-northeast, with activity expected to
largely be to the east of our area by midnight. In the wake of the
front, winds will diminish, but remain breezy, with much drier air
filtering into the region. Lows tonight respond accordingly, dipping
into the 40s west to middle 50s for the remainder of the area.

Tuesday will see cooler, but still above normal temperatures, with
highs topping out in the middle to upper 80s for most, 70s in the
mountains, and 90s confined to the Rio Grande and Lower Pecos
Valleys. Flow aloft will transition more zonal as the trough lifts
toward the Great Lakes, with breezy westerly winds helping to keep
temperatures on the warm side for mid-April. Continued dry
conditions will also lend to a continued fire weather threat, with
near critical conditions possible for portions of the region
Tuesday.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Quite weather settles in for the the beginning half of the long term
as zonal flow aloft maintains dry and warm temperatures through
Thursday, and highs each afternoon will be pleasant in the 80s to
90s. The next system, a broad upper level trough progressing across
Canada, will shoot a strong cold front down into Texas and New
Mexico, likely reaching the northern portions of our CWA sometime
Thursday evening. Along with significantly cooler temperatures, this
front will be the next catalyst for rain and storm chances,
beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the weekend. Rain
chances look to become more widespread Saturday, and afternoon
temperatures could be capped as low as 60 to 70 degrees both
Saturday and Sunday with ample cloud cover.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Light winds overnight will shift to the southwest at all terminals
by 15-18Z, becoming elevated and gusty areawide. Gusts to 25-35kt
will be common, with localized MVFR visibilities possible in
blowing dust during the afternoon. Outside of dust, VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds will diminish somewhat after 16/00Z, though
remain elevated through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The worst fire weather day of the forecast looks to be today, with
critical to extreme fire weather conditions across most of the
region. Humidity will fall as low as 3% today with clearing skies
out west, and 20ft winds will quickly ramp up with the approach of
an upper level low. 20ft winds will exceed 25kts across the west,
and the mountains could see gusts exceeding 50-60kts. A High Wind
Warning is in effect for the mountains and surrounding plains, and
Wind Advisories are in effect for neighboring counties as well. ERCs
remain at or near the 75th percentile and fuels are dry, and given
the low humidity and high winds, RFTIs are 7-8. A widespread Red
Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening, and even
when it expires late tonight, 20ft winds will remain elevated
overnight, limiting humidity recovery to only about 20-25%. Late-
night severe storms may impact the far eastern counties east of the
dryline, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible.

Given the weather we are expecting this afernoon, fuels will likely
continue to dry out and by Tuesday most areas will have dry to
critically dry fuels. Gusty 20ft winds, as well as humidity as low
as 5%, will likely warrent another fire weather product on Tuesday.
Elevated to near-critical fire weather will exist both Wednesday and
Thursday as conditions remain dry, but winds will be slightly less
both of these days. By Friday, a cold front will push into the area,
bringing below normal temperatures and increasing precipitation
chances into the weekend which should help offset fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  54  88  53 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 89  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  59  91  63 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  55  87  58 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  48  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    87  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     92  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   92  54  85  56 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     94  52  88  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 2 AM CDT /1
     AM MDT/ Tuesday for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 2 AM CDT Tuesday for Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM MDT Tuesday
     for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM MDT Tuesday for
     Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84