Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 282019
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A broad upper level high pressure ridge will build into the lower
Mississippi River Valley this weekend, bringing mild and dry
conditions to the Midsouth. High temperatures will range from the
lower 70s on Friday, to the upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday.

Rain chances will return late Monday through Tuesday, as an upper
level disturbance and slow moving cold front move through the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Midday upper air analysis and GOES water vapor imagery showed an
upper ridge axis over the high plains. This feature will lift
into the MS River Valley on Friday, as a closed upper low drops
south along the CA coast. This upper low will deepen over the
Great Basin over the weekend, amplifying downstream ridging over
the MS River Valley. During this period, daytime highs over the
Midsouth will continue to warm, reaching the upper 70s to lower
80s on Sunday.

The western U.S. upper trough will consist of two to three smaller
constituent lows. Medium range models differ on the placement and
ejection timing of these smaller pieces of energy. But the
overall longwave trough, while positively-oriented, should remain
sufficiently progressive to bring height falls to the Midsouth by
Monday night. NBM deterministic brings 20-30 PoPs along and north
of the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon. Modest CAPE at or below
500 J/kg should be largely capped by an elevated mixed layer
(EML). By late Monday night into early Tuesday, this EML should
erode/shift east with height falls. At this time, there is not
much to add to the SPC Days 4-8 Convective Outlook. Tuesday`s
outlook will come down to timing of height falls and position of
the surface cold front, relative to daytime heating.

Cooler and dry weather will prevail midweek, following the passage
of a Pacific cold front late Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft will
transition to upper level ridging and milder temperatures by next
Friday, as the progressive spring pattern continues.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions through the period as high pressure remains over
the area. Light north/northeast winds will soon shift
south/southwest as return flow moves across the Mid-South.
Tomorrow afternoon, winds will increase with gusts up to 20 kts.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH


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