819
FXUS64 KMEG 020424
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

No significant changes needed to the forecast tonight. No
additional rain/thunderstorms are expected until tomorrow
afternoon as we warm into the middle 80s once again. Southwest
flow will strengthen tomorrow beginning a stretch of numerous
days when several weak disturbances will track from the southwest
to Northeast across the Middle Mississippi River Valley.
Widespread severe storms do not look particularly likely on any
day, but a surface low will move across the Memphis area tomorrow
night that may enhance a few storms. Stronger storms look most
likely along and west of the Mississippi River where dew points
will be a few degrees higher and closer to a weak shortwave
trough. A cold front will usher in cooler conditions Friday when
highs should be in upper 70s. Temperatures will trend warmer each
day through the weekend into next week. We should see high
temperatures back in the middle 80s by Tuesday. Unsettled
conditions will continue well into next week. Expect at least a
slight chance of rain and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry and warm conditions will persist through Thursday afternoon.
Thereafter, a cold front will move into the region and bring
unsettled weather to the Mid-South through this weekend. Expect
highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Unsettled weather may
persist through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Near record high temperatures are being reported across the Mid-
South at this hour. Readings are generally in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees. The latest GOES East Visible Imagery reveals a
weak MCV swirling over north central Arkansas. An area of showers
and thunderstorms has formed on the northeast side of this
feature and is lifting NE in southern Missouri. Some outflow from
this activity could move into eastern Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel, but coverage should remain below 20 percent through
early evening.

Dry conditions will persist overnight as weak upper level ridging
remains in place. A southern stream shortwave will traverse
the ArkLaTex Region tomorrow morning and lift north into the
Lower Mississippi Valley in the afternoon hours. A decaying MCS
over the ArkLaTex may reemerge as an MCV tomorrow afternoon and
lift northeast into the Mid-South by late afternoon. With up to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE on hand and enhanced low level vorticity, a
few strong to severe storms are possible late tomorrow afternoon
and evening. In fact, a few SHARPpy RAP soundings suggest a
marginal threat of damaging winds. This activity will likely
persist through at least Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon, a cold front will approach the region from
the west and likely stall near the I-40 corridor. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
Another reinforcing front will push into the region on Saturday
and keep 30 to 40 PoPs over the region as a result.

Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday into early next week
as a series of shortwaves translate through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon/evening
when an MCV moves into the Mid-South. This MCV is expected to
result in an extended period of SHRA and possible TSRA persisting
through the TAF period. Rain and thunderstorms will result in
diminished vis at all sites late tomorrow and continue through
the end of the TAF cycle. IFR are expected tomorrow night as
continuous rain and thunderstorms begin.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS