517
FXUS64 KMEG 291155 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
655 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A wet and unsettled pattern will continue today with rain chances
increasing this afternoon. Daily bouts of rainfall will resume on
Wednesday with chances for widespread shower and thunderstorm
development Friday. Somewhat cooler and drier conditions are
expected this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Remnant showers from the QLCS that pushed through southern
Arkansas on Sunday are struggling to overcome the stable
environment across the Mid-South. As a result, showers continue to
diminish over northwest Mississippi. A few showers may continue
through mid-morning, but overall coverage will be sparse.

There exists potential for showers and storms to redevelop this
afternoon as a large upper low pushes into the Great Lakes Region,
ejecting a cold front into central Arkansas. Storm development may
further be aided by a shortwave that is progged to develop within
the trough axis by 18Z. Given overcast skies and highs in the low
to mid 70s today, only marginal instability will be in place this
afternoon. Therefore, any storm that does form should remain
subsevere. A few strong storms may be possible if more instability
is realized, but overall the threat is low.

Behind today`s system, an upper level ridging pattern will emerge
with high pressure centered over southeast CONUS. Both the GFS and
ECMWF continue to depict embedded shortwaves rotating around the
periphery of the ridge by Wednesday. As a result, daily rounds of
precipitation will be possible through the end of the week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as
a negatively tilted trough pushes into the Great Lakes Region,
bringing a cold front towards the Mid-South. Thunderstorms will
likely develop along and ahead of this boundary, but the severe
weather threat at this time appears low given lack luster wind
shear.

Unfortunately, it appears at this time that the aforementioned
front will washout over the Mid-South on Saturday. Therefore,
expect rain chances to persist into the weekend with afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Primary forecast concern today will be timing and coverage of
TSRA. Latest CAMs appear overdone with respect to instability and
surface winds at 12Z TAF onset. SPC mesoanalysis showed nil to minimal
instability in the convective outflow from overnight SHRA to the
west. This SHRA will spread into MEM shortly and will likely delay
convective destabilization until midafternoon.

Sufficient destabilization for TSRA appears more likely by late
afternoon, given the approach of a distinct shortwave trough. TCF
concurs, with sparse coverage depicted.

Late evening/early overnight IFR/MVFR CIGs appear a good behind
the departing shortwave trough.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB