Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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305 FXUS66 KMFR 061144 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 444 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Updated AVIATION Section .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some rather extensive cloud cover across southern Oregon and northern California this morning. Meanwhile, radar is indicating some returns in Siskiyou County as well as a few light showers starting to make their way inland as another front approaches the area. This front will allow showers to continue today with a few thunderstorms possible, largely north of the Oregon/California border. These storms are expected to be rather run of the mill, but could produce some breezy winds to 30 mph. In addition, this front will also cause breezy winds for the Winter Rim area in Lake County, including Highways 31 and US Highway 395 near Alkali Lake. Am continuing the Wind Advisory for those areas. Otherwise, temperatures will start of relatively chilly this morning. With cloud cover, expect temperatures to not reach freezing for most of the area, but the Shasta and the Scott Valleys in Siskiyou County still are showing a high chance (80%) of reaching freezing. A freeze warning remains in effect for those locations. After today, the front will leave the area and showers will decrease in coverage. Temperatures are expected to warm up as well. Then, beginning Wednesday into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will return to the Pacific northwest. This ridge is expected to remain in place through next week. This will see a sense of early summer as temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal this time of year. And while it is not in the forecast, Friday and Saturday could approach 90 degrees for West Side Valleys. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings are affecting the coastal terminals early this morning and these conditions will remain likely (70%) through at least mid-late morning as a front moves onshore. This front will cause showers over inland areas eastward to the Cascades through late this afternoon/early this evening. Many higher terrain areas will be obscured. There may also be scattered showers over the East Side and in NorCal, though showers in those areas will be more hit or miss. VFR will prevail, though may briefly lower to MVFR in showers. Gusty WSW winds are expected east of the Cascades, including at Klamath Falls this afternoon, where peak gusts of around 30 kt are expected. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, May 6, 2024...A front will move onshore this morning. Gusty southwest winds preceding the front become west and lower somewhat behind it, but steep seas keep conditions hazardous to small craft through late this morning. Seas will transition to moderate west swell this afternoon through midday Tuesday. A thermal trough will strengthen Tuesday afternoon with gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas developing, highest south of Cape Blanco. Wind speeds will peak during Wednesday afternoon/evening, but gusty northerly winds will persist into Thursday night. During this stretch (Wed pm-Thu), we could see gale force winds come to fruition, especially across the southern waters. As such, we have issued a gale watch for areas from roughly Port Orford southward. Conditions hazardous to small craft will expand north of Cape Blanco again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The thermal trough will weaken Friday into next weekend resulting in weaker north winds and lower seas. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031. CA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080-081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for PZZ356-376. && $$