National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KMKX 241257
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Jefferson Marsh Hwy Y South Burn...Wisconsin DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
757 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 24.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Northeast winds at ignition will gradually weaken by this
afternoon.  Cooler temperatures are expected today.  Relative
humidity values this afternoon will be very low, around 30
percent, and may drop to 25 percent.  Mixing heights will be
above 2000 feet AGL at ignition, and above 4000 feet AGL by
middle afternoon.  Smoke dispersal values will be in the good
category.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........40 at ignition...Max 52.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 5 to 8
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /30600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /30600 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  11  7   3   3   3   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............40  43  45  48  50  51  52  52
RH..............55  47  41  37  34  32  31  31
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   5   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.12  10  8   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.4
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.13  10  9   8   8   7   7   7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100031  27  29  27  29  27  27  27

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Widespread frost
                    overnight.
Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast 6 to
                    7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   3   6   9   12  17  22  26  24  22  19  14
Weather cov.....                            WID WID WID WID WID
Weather type....                            FST FST FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  50  46  40  37  35  33  31  30  30  30  29
RH..............32  34  38  48  54  59  63  69  69  72  72  78
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   5   4   4   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.    7   7   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   4
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   8   12  10  10  9   8   7   7   6   7   7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100025  12  5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (41400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9   4   4   3   2   3   4   4   6   8   10  13
Weather cov.....WID WID
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............29  31  35  41  48  51  54  57  59  59  59  59
RH..............78  75  64  50  39  33  30  27  25  26  27  28
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   4   4   5   6   6   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   6   7   8   10  10  11  11  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 2.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   5   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  12  12  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10002   1   5   11  20  29  32  36  37  41  41  32

$$
Forecaster...Halbach
Requested by...Craig Kopacek
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412225.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL craig.kopacek@wisconsin.gov