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000
FXUS62 KMLB 160853
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
453 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Warming Temperatures This Week and Remaining Dry...

Today-Tonight...Dry conditions will persist through tonight as a
high pressure ridge axis remains over the region. Forecast soundings
show an increase in upper level moisture through today, as well as a
slight increase in low level moisture (PW values ranging from 0.7-
0.8") into this afternoon. Locally, mostly sunny skies are forecast,
with some high level clouds streaming over the local area through
the day. Much like the last several days, rain chances remain out of
the forecast through tonight. Light and variable winds will become
east to southeast by mid-morning and increase to 10-15 mph, with
gusts up to 20 mph possible, especially along the coast into this
afternoon. Winds will start to decrease after sunset, becoming light
overnight. The warming trend continues today, with temperatures at
or slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will
be in the low 80s east of I-95, and mid 80s west of I-95, with
upper 80s possible in the far western interior. Overnight lows
will be in the low 60s under clear to mostly clear skies.

Wed-Sun...Mid-level ridge extending from the Bay of Campeche NE
across the FL peninsula Wed will get flattened by southern stream
shortwave energy. A period of NW flow aloft should occur late week
as mid level trough develops over the SW Atlc. Fast zonal flow
(west to east) should develop Sun-Mon as broad troughing develops
over the eastern CONUS. In the low levels, the Atlc ridge axis
slips southward across the area Wed and reaches south FL Thu
where it will remain into the weekend. Some mid level energy will
cross the area Fri in the NW flow aloft, but dearth of low level
moisture argues against introducing any rain chances. The GFS
continues to produce a little QPF late Sat and Sun aftns across
EC FL which will be in a region of favorable low level convergence
on the north side of the ridge axis combined with late sea breeze
mergers. But have low confidence sufficient low level moisture
will exist so will keep the weekend dry for now.

The low level ridge axis should hold firm across south FL Thu thru
the weekend preventing any frontal passages and will promote a
south to southwest flow turning onshore near the coast each aftn.
Across the interior, max temps will warm into the upper 80s/near
90 Wed, and low 90s Thu-Sun with a few mid 90s possible. Daily
afternoon sea breezes will keep coastal communities a little
cooler in the low 80s Wed warming to the upper 80s Fri-Sun due to
a more delayed sea breeze onset.

Mon...Mid level troughing developing over the eastern CONUS will
help push a frontal boundary into the Deep South and could bring
our next best chance for scattered showers but also storms.
Current forecast has a weakening boundary oozing southward into
central FL so have drawn 40 PoPs across the north and 20 PoPs
across the south but timing uncertainties exist at this long
range. While many will welcome some rain, it may also come with a
risk of lightning strikes which could spark brush fires given the
dry antecedent conditions. This will be an ongoing concern as we
enter our peak fire season prior to the onset of the wet season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. CIGs will be SCT100-
250 to SKC. Light and variable winds will become east to southeast
at 10-15 KT by mid morning, with gusts up to 20 KT possible in the
afternoon. Winds will then become light once again overnight. Some
guidance was indicating patchy fog will be possible across the
northern interior early this morning, but confidence is not high, so
have left out any mention of fog in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions through the period.
East to southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT by mid-morning
with gusts of 20-25 KT possible through tonight. Seas 2-3ft will
build up to 4ft in the far offshore waters late tonight. Rain
chances remain out of the forecast through tonight.

Wed-Sat...Favorable boating conditions with the Atlc ridge axis
shifting back southward over the local Atlc waters Wed and
reaching south FL Thu and remaining there into the weekend. Winds
SE 10-15 knots Wed then S-SW 10 knots Thu-Sat, but turning
onshore (SE) near the coast in an aftn sea breeze. Seas 3 ft Tue,
building 4 ft well offshore Tue night- Wed night. Seas subside
back 2-3 feet Thu-Sat as offshore flow develops. No rain/storms
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure will remain in control over east central Florida
through Saturday, maintaining dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Fire weather sensitive conditions will exist today
as wind increase out of the east southeast 10-14 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Winds will decrease slightly Wednesday and Thursday
and become more southerly as ridge axis slips south across the
area and becomes stationary across south Florida late this week
and weekend. Min RH values will reach at or below critical levels
across the interior each afternoon, falling near 30% today north
and west of Orlando and 30-35% across all the interior Wednesday
through Saturday. Min RH values will hold between 40-50% near the
east coast. Very Good dispersion is forecast this afternoon and
again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  60  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  64  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  63  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  87  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  86  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  86  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Watson
LONG TERM...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson