692
FXUS62 KMLB 280236
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1036 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...Overnight Showers Remain Possible, Especially Near the Coast...
...Breezy Conditions Continue Along the Coastal Corridor
Tonight...

Showers across the Atlantic waters have mostly diminished for the
time being, but with the fresh onshore flow and a deep marine
layer, there remains a slight chance for winds to whip up more
onshore moving through the night and into Sunday. Given the
uncertainty, went ahead and broadly painted 20 pct PoPs across the
waters and the coastal corridor, and a silent 10 pct with a
mention of sprinkles inland. Breezy along the coastal corridor
with easterly winds 15-20 mph, frequent gusts to 25 mph, and
occasional gusts to 30 mph, especially from the Cape south. Inland
winds generally 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Overnight lows
generally in the 60s, except the barrier islands around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions. Strong high pressure
shifting offshore the Atlantic seaboard has tightened the pressure
gradient across central Florida, producing easterly winds 20-25
kts across the local waters early tonight, diminishing to 15-20
kts towards morning. Seas build up to 6-8 ft tonight, then start
to subside early Sunday morning. Isolated showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. ISO onshore moving
SHRA remains possible INVOF the coastal terminals, so went ahead
and added VCSH through the TAF. Can`t rule out a -SHRA reaching
the inland terminals, but too low for VC mention until the
afternoon. Chances then increase, so added VCSH at 15Z. Easterly
winds 15-20 kts diminish to 10-15 kts between 09-12Z, then pick
back up to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 15Z Sunday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches this
Weekend...
...Hazardous Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal
Waters into Sunday....

Current-Sunday...The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows scattered light
showers ongoing across the local area this afternoon, especially
from Melbourne to Kissimmee northward. These showers are moving west-
northwest around 20-25 mph. Satellite and local observations show
marine stratocu streaming across east central Florida with some high
level clouds moving in from the west. As of 3 PM, temperatures are
in the low 80s, with a few sites in the upper 70s across the coast.

Upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS will remain over the
region, while slowly shifting eastward towards the seaboard through
the period. Surface high pressure just off the coast of the
Carolinas will remain anchored, allowing for onshore flow to
persist. Breezy and gusty conditions will continue through tomorrow
as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area. Easterly winds
will be 16-23 mph with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph possible, and up
to 35 mph possible along the coast, through this afternoon with
speeds at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25mph possible through
Sunday. Winds will diminish overnight, especially across the
interior, with speeds remaining elevated and gusty closer to the
coast tonight.

Scattered showers and sprinkles will continue over the Atlantic
waters through Sunday, with some of this activity making it to the
coast and pushing inland, especially along the coast and from
Melbourne to Kissimmee northward. Have added PoP 10-15% across all
of ECFL to account for these isolated light showers/sprinkles
through the period. Partly cloudy skies this afternoon will persist
through tonight before slowly diminishing through the day on Sunday,
partly sunny by late afternoon. Temperatures will be around
seasonable for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the upper
70s to low 80s across the coast, and low to mid 80s across the
interior this afternoon and once again on Sunday. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 60s tonight.

Monday... Fairly similar weather to our weekend as we kick off the
new work week. Ridging aloft wins out with a surface high off the
coast of the Carolinas, delivering deep E/SE flow to the boundary
layer across East-Central Florida. Shallow moisture in the lowest
200 mb could be enough to spark a few coastal showers but kept rain
chances at 20% or less. Otherwise, partly cloudy and breezy at times
with low 80s near the coast warming into the mid 80s over the
interior. Lows in the low/mid 60s, except near 70 on the barrier
islands.

Tuesday-Saturday... (modified previous discussion) The remainder of
the forecast period will be high and dry as the surface high drifts
slightly seaward through midweek but still keeps influence on the
local pattern. Onshore winds continue this week, increasing in the
afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. No PoPs in the forecast
through next weekend, although could see hints of light onshore
moving showers similar to early in the week, but do not have the
confidence to include. Temperatures by Tuesday reach the upper 80s
inland; still lower 80s at the coast, with a few low 90s making an
appearance to begin the month of May over the interior. While it
will be warm, lower dewpoints will keep the oppressiveness at bay
for at least a bit longer. Lows in the mid/upper 60s persist this
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Current-Sunday... Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 6ft
with ESE winds around 18 KT. Boating conditions will continue to
deteriorate today as the pressure gradient tightens. Easterly winds
of 15-20 KT will increase to 20-25 KT later this afternoon before
gradually decreasing late tonight to 15-20 KT and continuing .
through Sunday. Seas 4-6ft will build up to 7ft in the offshore
waters this afternoon, and 6-7ft in the near shore waters and 7-8ft
in the Gulf Stream waters tonight before slowly subsiding to 4-6ft
Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the all the
Atlantic waters into tonight, with the nearshore Volusia and Brevard
waters dropping off at 4AM, which will likely transition exercise
caution headlines for those zones. Scattered light showers (PoP 15
percent)will continue through Sunday in the stout onshore flow, with
activity moving towards the coast.

Monday-Wednesday... Moderate onshore (E/SE) flow continues through
at least Tuesday (12-17 KT) before subsiding a bit on Wed (8-12 KT).
Seas 3-5 FT nearshore Mon/Tue, up to around 4-6 FT in the Gulf
Stream. By Wednesday, seas lessen to 2-4 FT in all areas. Each day,
expect a light to moderate chop on inland waterways. There remains a
20% chance for showers through at least Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Sunday-Wednesday... With steady east-to-southeast winds (10-15 mph
with occasional gusts to around 20 mph), modified levels of moisture
will be transported across the state. However, interior areas that
warm more significantly will experience lower afternoon RH readings,
dropping to the 35-40% range. So, fire-sensitive weather conditions
persist especially away from the coastline as we continue this
longer dry stretch of weather across East Central Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  79  64  81 /  20  20   0  10
MCO  66  82  64  85 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  67  80  67  82 /  20  20   0  20
VRB  66  81  65  82 /  20  20   0  20
LEE  66  83  63  85 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  66  82  63  85 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  66  83  64  85 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  65  80  64  82 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
LONG TERM...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley