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000
FXUS64 KMOB 111821
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
121 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR ceilings continue across much of the area with a few isolated
showers as the upper low continues to rotate across the Tennessee
Valley. The showers will end with clearing skies this evening as
the upper low moves away from the area. /13

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A potent mid to upper level low pressure system over northwest
Mississippi this morning will continue to lift across the
Tennessee Valley today before consolidating with another upper low
over the Great Lakes region tonight. This upper low and associated
troughing will keep cloudy conditions along with isolated showers
over the forecast area today. A deepening surface low stacked
beneath the mid/upper level low pressure system will keep a tight
pressure gradient in place across the region as well.
Southwesterly winds early this morning will gradually shift to
northwesterly by this afternoon and increase in intensity. Windy
conditions can be expected with sustained winds between 20 and 25
mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. This gusts will remain just
below our wind advisory criteria, but regardless it will be a
windy and cool day. The cloud cover along with the northwest wind
shift should help to limit much in the way of heating today with
afternoon highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will
gradually break up late this afternoon or early evening with clear
skies expected overnight. Winds will also diminish this evening
allowing for a relatively chilly night. Low temperatures will drop
into the middle 40s over interior locations to the lower and
middle 50s along the coast.

High pressure builds into the area on Friday providing for sunny
skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.

Coastal hazards with high surf and life threatening rip currents
will continue into the day Friday. /JLH

SHORT AND EXTENDED TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Upper level ridging builds over the forecast area for the weekend
through the middle of next week as surface high pressure slides
east to a position of the Southeast U.S. coast by the end of the
weekend. A noticeable warm up is expected with a prolonged period
of dry weather. Temperatures rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s
on Saturday, warming into the lower to middle 80s for Sunday
through the middle of next week. Low temperatures will start off
cool in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s near the coast,
for the weekend and then rise into the lower to middle 60s for the
first part of next week as southerly low level flow returns and
humidity gradually increases. The next chances for any
precipitation should hold off until at least the end of next week.
/JLH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      49  76  49  80  54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   54  75  53  77  56  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      57  75  56  76  59  76  63  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   48  75  44  81  50  84  52  84 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  46  75  46  82  50  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      46  72  44  79  50  83  52  83 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   48  76  46  81  50  82  53  83 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for FLZ204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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