633
FXUS66 KMTR 051755
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1055 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated post frontal showers will continue through Sunday morning
with decreasing intensity. While the next couple days will be
chilly, a gradual warming trend will bring temperatures above
normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

The cold front has been quite progressive over the last 24 hours
and is now near the CA/Mexico border. The cold air left behind
has brought the 1000-500 mb thickness into the mid 530 dm range.
This will cause surface temperatures to drop into the low 40s for
most areas away from the immediate coast or bay shore. This cold
air is also causing some instability, with the low level lapse
rates around the conditionally unstable threshold of 6.5 C/km. As
such, isolated showers are expected to continue through the
morning. The cold air is also drier, and by mid-day there will not
be enough moisture to support convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

A significant warming trend is in store this week as an upper
level ridge forms over the Eastern Pacific. As an example, the
high temperature at Santa Rosa on reached 58F on Saturday and is
expected to reach 84F by Thursday. A marine layer will likely
develop under the high pressure and keep coastal areas cool,
although the low-level moisture doesn`t seem to support
significant fog or stratus coverage. Overall, it will be a nice
week with increasing temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest winds return
this afternoon and continue into the evening with light to moderate
winds expected overnight. Satellite shows cumulus clouds developing
in the South Bay and along the Central Coast. MVFR CIGs are tempoed
for SNS and SJC until 19-20Z with moderate to high confidence that
as CIGs continue to rise VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of
the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to
northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots continue through the late
evening with guidance indicating gusts drop off between 04-6Z.
Moderate to confidence that gusts will not exceed 25 knots with
probabilistic guidance indicating a low probability (0-10% chance)
of gusts greater than 25 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to
northwest winds with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the late
evening. Satellite shows cumulus clouds developing over MRY and SNS.
Tempoed MVFR conditions from 18-20Z at SNS due to increasing
thickness of cloud coverage but 5 minute observations show rising
CIG heights which increases confidence that VFR conditions will
return by 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated rain showers linger over the coastal waters with shower
potential diminishing heading into the late morning. Dry
conditions  return by Sunday afternoon and prevail through the
forecast  period. Moderate to fresh winds continue in portions the
southern waters with a coastal jet developing from Point Pinos to
Point  Piedras Blancas. Elsewhere, moderate northwesterly breezes
prevail through tomorrow. Winds strengthen and become more
northerly  Tuesday through Thursday as surface higher pressure
builds and  moves eastward. Significant wave heights will begin
building on  Monday, posing hazardous conditions for small craft
through  Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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