Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 262024
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
324 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds diminish this evening, leaving light winds for the
  overnight hours.

- Dry weather returns for the middle and end of the week with warming
  temperatures up to 50s, 60s, and possibly 70s.

- Chances for precipitation return to the region late this
  weekend through early next week. Chances for precipitation are
  moderate (50- 70% chance) at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Yesterday`s storm system continues to push off to the northeast this
afternoon. This is resulting in a weakening surface pressure
gradient (SPG) across the area and thus weakening winds. Gusts up to
30+ mph this afternoon will wane to light northwest winds this
evening and night. The other aspect for today is low level stratus
on the backside of the departing system. Current satellite shows the
stratus slowly pushing eastwards this afternoon. Should see the
stratus exit the area late this afternoon and evening, leaving clear
skies for the overnight hours. With clear skies and light winds in
place, efficient radiational cooling will take place, allowing low
temperatures to fall to the teens and low 20s.

A surface ridge will slide through the area tomorrow, keeping winds
light and variable. 850 mb temperatures will reside between -6 C to
-2 C aloft. Mixing this to the surface will result in high
temperatures from the mid 30s to upper 40s. With the ridge passing
through the area, light and variable winds are expected, starting
the day out of west/northwest before slowly turning southerly during
the evening and overnight hours. Hi-res guidance is in decent
agreement in flurries passing approximately along the highway-32
corridor. As such, have added flurries to the forecast in this area.
Otherwise, tomorrow will be quiet. Low temperatures will fall to the
teens to upper 20s overnight.

Thursday will be another quiet day across the region. Warm air
advection (WAA) will strengthen over the Central Plains as the
previously mentioned surface high departs to the east. A weak warm
front will stall out across the area which will raise afternoon high
temperatures to the upper 40s to low 60s. With southerly flow
continuing for the rest of the day and night, low temperatures will
be warmer, only falling to the the mid 30s to mid 40s overnight.

Heights begin to fall aloft as a couple of short wave troughs begin
to eject into the Central Plains on Friday. This will spawn lee
cyclogenesis on the front range of the Rocky Mountains. With
southerly flow and continued WAA aloft ahead of the surface low, 850
mb temperatures will warm up to +6 C to +10 C aloft. Mixing this to
the surface will result in warmer high temperatures from the upper
50s to up to 70 degrees F. The surface low pressure system will
slide through the forecast area but will by in a dry environment,
thus keeping precipitation chances at bay. Low temperatures will
fall to the 30s overnight.

Saturday will be another warm and dry day with highs in the upper
40s to up to 60s degrees F. Chances for precipitation return on
Sunday and continue through early next week as another upper level
trough ejects into the Plains from the Rockies. The GFS, Euro, and
Canadian ensembles all show a 50-70% chance for exceeding a tenth of
an inch of liquid QPF during this period of time, highest on Monday.
As of now, precipitation types remain uncertain so have stuck with
model blended PoPs and precipitation types. Will continue to monitor
trends over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Current satellite shows MVFR stratus blanketed across the area this
afternoon. The stratus will hang around through most of the
afternoon hours before pushing off to the east late this afternoon
and evening. Light snow has been falling at KOFK and looks to
continue to fall until the stratus clears late this afternoon. KOMA
and KLNK look to remain dry beneath the stratus.

Northwest winds have been gusting up to around 30 knots but will
wane through the late afternoon and evening hours. Light northwest
winds with speeds up to around 5 knots will persist through the rest
of the night. Winds will remain light but turn to out of the
west/southwest to end the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Meyers


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