761
FXUS64 KOHX 070533
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1233 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Thunderstorm activity definitely over-performed today with
several severe storms producing large hail, damaging winds, and a
couple tornadoes. Isolated activity remains across the area late
this evening with the strongest storms located along the
Cumberland Plateau. While these storms may continue to produce
small hail and gusty winds, the severe threat is diminishing and
will continue to diminish as we lose daytime heating.

As for tomorrow`s severe weather threat, thinking hasn`t changed
much from the earlier discussion below. Next round of
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon where daytime heating
and plenty of instability will allow for pop-up storms. Latest
runs of the HRRR don`t show much convection in the afternoon and
what does develop looks to be poorly organized. But as a weak
frontal boundary moves into Middle TN tomorrow night, that should
provide more forcing for better organization. Thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours will be capable of
producing hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Humid conditions in place across the area this morning. Temps are in
the 60s and lower 70s. The earlier shower and thunderstorm activity
moved out earlier. We did get some isolated wind damage in our
southwest. Also...isolated 2-4 inch rainfall amounts across
Humphreys and also the Van Buren and Cumberland county areas.

For today, plenty of instability in place. Dynamics are a bit weak
but we should see some isolated to scattered activity fire in the
afternoon. Will need to watch those aforementioned rainfall areas as
a flood advisory or two may be needed. Otherwise, a few strong
storms cannot be ruled out with some high winds and some hail
possible later this afternoon. The convection should calm down for
tonight but the humid and muggy conditions will continue.

On Tuesday, some storms will fire but mainly in the afternoon.
Organization looks rather weak and convection may hinge on outflows
and heating. The slight risk which is in place does appear to be
aligned with Tuesday night when a dissipating frontal boundary
pushes some forcing into our area. Given the humid airmass,
instabilities will remain in play into the overnight hours. The
severe threat will include wind and hail potential.

Wednesday appears to be the biggest severe threat. We are currently
outlooked with an enhanced risk across our northwest. It looks to be
a 2 wave event. The first and weaker wave, will occur Wednesday
afternoon. some weak pre frontal forcing may tap into an
increasingly unstable environment. Mid level Lapse rates and shear
levels will be on the increase. I`d say isolated to scattered severe
storms could impact the mid state as the storms move east
northeastward. Wave #2 appears to be the main event. Models continue
to trend toward later with each run. Though synoptics dont look
classically dramatic, the forcing/instability/shear phasing looks
about as good as it has all spring. Case in point, the omega fields
are well organized and phase with 1500 j/kg cape, -7 showalter
values, 850 mb wind speeds of 45kts, and ml laps rates of 7C to 8C
at 06Z. Damaging winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy
rainfall will all be possible. Those rainfall amounts will average 1-
2 inches for Wednesday/Wednesday night.

For the near term temps, its looking steady state and rather muggy.
Lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

In the extended forecast, the first of 2 fronts will move through
early Thursday. The second will move through Thursday night and
bring some cooler air. A series of northwesterly impulses will bring
off and on showers into the weekend but nothing noteworthy.

Temperatures will cool down behind the Thursday fropas and actually
dip below normal for the weekend. You can look for lows 45 to 55 and
highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Patchy to locally dense fog has developed early this morning,
especially for CSV/SRB. Expect this trend to continue through the
early morning, before returning to VFR across the area. May have a
few periods of low cigs near sunrise as well. VCTS will be in the
area through this afternoon, but not enough confidence to include
TSRA for any specific terminals at this time. Winds will remain
from the S/SW, becoming gusty up to 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  70  85  69 /  50  60  80 100
Clarksville    83  68  83  67 /  60  60  90  90
Crossville     80  64  80  63 /  60  70  70  90
Columbia       84  68  86  66 /  60  70  80 100
Cookeville     81  66  81  65 /  60  70  70 100
Jamestown      82  64  80  64 /  70  70  70  90
Lawrenceburg   83  68  85  66 /  60  70  70 100
Murfreesboro   85  68  85  66 /  50  60  70 100
Waverly        83  68  85  66 /  60  70  90 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Adcock