Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
645 FXUS64 KOHX 031741 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1241 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening, and possibly into the overnight hours especially for KSRB and KCSV. Timing the best chance at seeing rainfall for each terminal using latest CAM guidance, but chances for -TSRA will remain possible through the afternoon and evening which will bring MVFR/IFR cigs and vis to impacted terminals. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots will become light overnight, and pick up again during the morning Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 82 65 85 / 50 70 50 70 Clarksville 63 80 64 82 / 50 50 40 70 Crossville 61 74 60 78 / 50 80 50 80 Columbia 63 80 64 84 / 60 70 50 80 Cookeville 63 76 62 80 / 50 80 50 80 Jamestown 61 76 60 80 / 50 80 50 80 Lawrenceburg 63 79 63 82 / 60 50 50 80 Murfreesboro 64 79 63 84 / 40 70 50 80 Waverly 63 80 63 82 / 60 50 50 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Barnwell