167
FXUS64 KOHX 010520
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A very pleasant, mild evening across the midstate with current
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s, and comfortable dewpoints in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Main forecast concern for tonight will be
how widespread fog will get. Wet ground from last night`s
rainfall, clear skies, light to calm winds, and low temperatures
forecast in the mid to upper 50s which are near or below current
dewpoints all suggest fog will become quite widespread, especially
over our southern and eastern halves. Have increased fog in
grids/zones for tonight, and it`s certainly possible a dense fog
advisory may be needed at some point. Otherwise, forecast remains
on track and only made minor tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For most of Middle TN, it`s a mix of clouds and sun at forecast
time. However, a few on the Cumberland Plateau are catching a shower
this morning. This should be the case for the next few hours before
the backside of our system from last night pulls further away from
the mid-state. Everyone should be rain-free before sunset. Also, the
cumulus across the area should dissipate about this time, too. With
light to calm winds and dew points remaining elevated, areas of fog
are going to be possible tonight. A lot of it will be closer to
bodies of water -- this is likely where it will be most dense -- but
it may become widespread enough where we may need an advisory. I`ll
let the evening shift take another look at it this evening to
determine if an advisory will be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure builds into the area tomorrow and Thursday, setting
the stage for our warmest days of the year, so far. Mid to upper 80s
are likely and while models still haven`t ticked BNA up to 90 for
forecast highs on Thursday, there`s still a 70-80% chance we get
there.

Models continue to bring our next chance for rain back to Middle TN
late Thursday night/first thing Friday morning. I`ve been looking
over forecast soundings for Friday and I`ll admit, they are
interesting. A good deal of CAPE is expected to build into the
region (likely north of 1000 J/Kg) and mid-level lapse rates top
out around 7.0 deg/km, however shear is almost non-existent as the
surface low and associated upper support is up near the US/Canada
border. It`s not likely to happen, but if we get any sort of
secondary surface low to develop in the southwest flow and get
some shear to develop, Friday`s severe chances will increase. In
any event, rain chances will linger into Friday night and while we
may see a break for a good portion of Saturday, more rain chances
quickly move back into the area on Sunday and they could stick
with us into Monday, as well. While severe chances are low to
zero, you are going to want to pay attention to the forecast if
you have outdoor plans this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Fog will impact CSV/SRB through the rest of the overnight hours
and early this morning. IFR/LIFR visibilities are likely. Fog
will also likely develop at MQY. BNA/CKV are less certain in
regards to fog development. Any fog will mix out by 13-14z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the taf period. Winds will be
light at 5 kts or less for the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  62  89  66 /   0   0   0  30
Clarksville    86  61  88  65 /   0   0   0  60
Crossville     80  57  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       86  59  87  65 /   0   0   0  30
Cookeville     81  59  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      81  57  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   84  59  86  65 /   0   0   0  30
Murfreesboro   86  58  89  65 /   0   0   0  20
Waverly        86  62  88  64 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan