156
FXUS63 KPAH 040424
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1124 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue this weekend and through next week.

- Unsettled weather pattern through next week with scattered
  showers and storms Saturday through Monday, and more
  widespread storms Monday night through Thursday.

- Potential exists for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Upper level troughing will remain to our North and West with
several disturbances advancing through the region helping to
bring scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next
week. This afternoon a weak disturbance is moving across the
area helping to generate some scattered shower activity. Wind
fields aloft are weak, so not expecting much any organization
this afternoon and into tonight. The loss of forcing, and
nocturnal stabilization should lead to mostly dry conditions
tonight. A northern stream disturbance moves across the northern
plains Saturday into Sunday. A few weak impulses are progged to
move across the region leading to scattered showers and storms
within a moist and unstable airmass. Overall, the lack of shear
should keep severe potential low, although an isolated strong to
severe storm is possible across SEMO Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Our attention then turns toward a few days of more active
weather Sunday into the middle of next week. A more robust
shortwave lifts from the southern plains with a weak boundary
draped across the Quad State Sunday night into Monday. Better
synoptic scale forcing combined with an unstable boundary layer
should lead to more widespread showers and storms during this
period. Unlike today and Saturday, mid level flow will be
slightly stronger as a 30-35 knot mid level jet noses into the
area. Deep layer shear approaches 30 knots which may lead to
some organized convection, although the current thinking is that
these potential storms will be more isolated in nature. The
upper levels amplify Monday night into Tuesday as a sharp upper
trough digs into the northern plains. Shortwave ridging
developing over the region may keep things more isolated Monday
into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be breezy as low level winds
increase associated with strong mid/upper level flow. Winds
could approach 30 mph during the afternoon.

Still need to watch for severe weather potential Tuesday into
Thursday associated with a more amplified upper level pattern and a
good overlap of shear and instability. Deep layer troughing will
develop across the Rockies and move into the plains states.  Still
some questions on when the greatest time-frame for severe weather
but there seems to be an increasing signal on the Wed-Thu time-
frame. An area of low pressure develops across OK/TX and lifts
northeast into Missouri. Increasing divergent flow aloft will
overspread an increasingly moist and unstable airmass with
dewpoints likely approaching or exceeding 70 degrees. Increasing
southwest flow aloft will translate to increased deep layer
shear for organized severe weather. All modes of severe weather
appear possible at this time. Later forecasts will be able to
fine tune timing of severe weather. Additionally, will also need
to keep an eye on flooding concerns with several rounds of
convection possible through next week. Drier weather arrives
Friday post fropa and with increasing zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A little big challenging forecast with dewpoints very near the
temperature across the area late this evening. Winds are fairly
light under a temperature inversion, which would favor fog
formation; however, latest satellite trends are showing more
stratus developing under the inversion over portions of SEMO. At
this point, have stuck with fog and mention of a scattered low
deck in the TAFs, but this may need to be adjusted through the
night. Improving conditions are expected after daybreak Saturday
with mid to high clouds streaming in from the west and
southwest. A scattered shower or storm is possible, but
confidence in timing and coverage is low enough to leave out
with this update.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>077-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC