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000
FXUS63 KPAH 101149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  tonight through Thursday. Heavy rainfall and some minor
  flooding concerns will peak tonight. A few strong to severe
  storms cannot be ruled out over west Kentucky Wednesday night.

- Strong northwest winds will gust 30 to 40 mph at times
  Thursday and Friday.

- South to southwest breezes will bring dry conditions and well
  above normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Sunday night and
  continue through next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A storm system over west Texas early this morning will push
eastward across Texas today, then lift northeast over the Quad
State late tonight into Thursday, as northern stream energy
dives south into the Mississippi Valley. The two systems will
merge into one larger trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
Thursday.

At the surface, an inverted surface trough will begin to take
shape across the Quad State today and then really tighten up as
the upper system moves overhead tonight. The primary low
pressure center will lift along the boundary through the Quad
State overnight into Thursday. In its wake, very strong
northwest winds will develop and spread eastward across the
region through the day. At this time, it appears that the
inverted surface trough will run from near Paducah to near
Evansville, but that could shift either direction. Regardless,
it will set up somewhere across the Quad State.

Areas of showers across the region this morning will become
more numerous and intense this afternoon and especially tonight.
Showers will gradually come to an end from the west Thursday.

Instability is very limited for this system, so thunderstorms
should be fairly isolated. Best chances will be just ahead of
the upper low path tonight. Wind fields east of the surface
trough will be very impressive and support rotation in any
surface-based storms that can develop tonight. This will be most
likely over west Kentucky. Confidence in developing any useful
surface-based instability tonight is very low. However, given
the wind fields that will be in place, SPC`s Marginal Risk seems
reasonable.

Heavy rainfall will be most likely east of the surface trough
tonight, which at this time looks to be over southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois. Heavy rainfall to this point has been
very isolated, and the lack of significant instability to
create more extreme convective rain rates should limit the flash
flood potential. WPC`s stormtotal QPF from now through Thursday
is generally around 2 inches over southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri, and tapers to under an inch over much of
west Kentucky on the east side of the surface trough. There are
no plans for a flood watch at this time, but we will have to
monitor radar and model trends closely today. A watch could
still be needed.

In the wake of the surface low passage, the trailing surface
trough/cold front will move eastward out of the Quad State on
Thursday. Guidance is in good agreement in very strong northwest
winds developing behind front initially over southeast Missouri
in the morning and then spreading eastward over the entire
region through the afternoon and into the evening. The 00Z HREF
indicates about a 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph
Thursday, while the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble has well over a 50%
chance of exceeding 40 mph. There will be very strong and deep
mixing behind the system and it is a strong possibility that a
Wind Advisory will be needed for most, if not all, of the Quad
State.

The best mixing and strongest winds on Friday will be limited
to the northeast half of the area, and especially the Evansville
Tri State. The ECMWF Ensemble has about a 50% chance of
exceeding 40 mph over the Tri State, so a Wind Advisory may
needed up there on Friday.

Surface high pressure will pass by to the south of the area
Friday night, and healthy southwest winds will develop
throughout the area for Saturday. Aloft the flow will relax and
become nearly zonal. The result will be a quick warm up well
into the 70s Saturday. The south to southwest winds will
continue Sunday through at least Tuesday, and temperatures will
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s each day.

At some point early next week, a storm system will lift
northeast through the Plains toward the upper Mississippi
Valley. At this time it seems that the best chance for any
associated convection to impact the Quad State will be late
Monday into Tuesday. The system will likely be occluded, so
there will not be much of cold front with it. It will likely be
a subtle wind shift to the southwest and look more like a
dewpoint front than a temperature front. As a result, the NBM
has highs hanging out near 80 next Wednesday, too.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

IFR and LIFR ceilings will be the rule with widespread showers through
the period. Scattered TSRA are expected over most of the region
beginning around midday and continuing through the end of the
period. Confidence in timing and duration at any location is
pretty low, as it is in the undulations of IFR/LIFR ceilings.
The best chance for a MVFR ceiling will be late tonight at KOWB,
but even that is pretty low. Winds will generally be light
today, but a north wind will kick in late tonight and may begin
gusting at KCGI and KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS