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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog across the Quad State early in the day, will
  burn off quickly after sunrise.

- A stormier pattern emerges for the end of the week into the
  weekend with a warmup expected. The best chance of strong to
  severe storms is late Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Rain that fell across the area last night has led to at least
patchy dense fog this morning; however, this should burn off
quickly after sunrise. Visibilities may drop to one-quarter mile
or less until it does burn off.

A surface ridge is expected to build across the Quad State area
today through tonight as it gradually shifts east overnight. This
will lead to fairly quiet conditions. Aloft, a broad trough axis
will shift eastward through tonight as heights begin to rise from
the west, leading to more a ridged pattern later tonight. The lack
of moisture today through this evening will lead to partly cloudy
skies; however, there will be a gradual increase in cloud cover late
tonight as warm air and moisture advection increases on the back
side of the departing surface ridge.

A surface low is expected to develop and shift into the central
Plains Thursday into Thursday night as the aformentioned surface
ridge drifts gradually to the northeast. The pressure gradient
between the two will allow wind speeds to increase from the south.
Flow off the Gulf will allow for moisture return along with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as isentropic upglide increases on solid
moisture transport. Their may be just enough instability to produce
some thunder, but not expecting severe weather through Thursday
night.

The next, perhaps better, chance for showers and thunderstorms will
be Friday into Friday night. Showers and storms are expected to
develop across the Plains and then shift eastward across Missouri
Friday afternoon and evening before reaching the Quad State area
Friday night. The convection looks like it would race well out ahead
of the forcing/frontal boundary, which would tend to support a
weakening trend as it reaches the Quad State area. Instability is
fairly low across the Quad State; however, it is best over portions
of SEMO, closer to lower heights. Still not that great though,
models painting out a few hundred J/kg. The western quarter of the
CWA (portions of SEMO/southern IL) are in a marginal risk for severe
with general thunder for much of the rest of the area. The main
threat would be damaging wind before the storms diminish east of the
Mississippi River.

The next in the series of low pressure systems will develop over the
central Plains, then lift northeastward toward the western Great
Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. As this happens, a frontal boundary
will shift through the Quad State overnight into Monday morning.
Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to be fairly widespread. Shear and instability may be enough to lead
to an increased risk for severe storms Sunday night; however, there
are some differences in the guidance so details will be ironed out
over the next few days. Western portions of the Quad State are
outlooked for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday night. Again,
current thinking is a damaging wind risk, but details are a little
murky at this time. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s
for much of the area!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Patchy dense fog this morning will quickly dissipate just after
sunrise. The rest of the TAF issuance will remain VFR. Winds
will be failry light, generally at 10kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ003>005-
     007-010-011-013>016-018>021.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC