Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light snow showers for the mountains this afternoon, with
dry conditions expected elsewhere.

- Dry and chilly conditions expected Wednesday night for the
  region.

- Near critical and critical fire weather conditions possible
  from Thursday through Sunday - with Saturday and Sunday
  having the best set-up.

-Another strong storm next Monday and Tuesday. Heavy mountain
 snow and a strong cold front possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Today: A relatively quiet Wednesday is in store for south central
and southeastern Colorado. A broad longwave trough will be pushing
eastward and exiting the region throughout the day. While doing so,
northwesterly flow will persist across the region. Given the lack of
any major forcing, most will stay dry today. The exception to this
will be along the mountains, particularly the central mountains,
where isolated light snow showers are expected given the orographic
forcing still ongoing. There is possibility of light and gusty
showers across the plains this afternoon, but confidence in this
shower development is low given the lack of any major support.
Looking at temperatures, the warming trend continues for the region.
While a minor cool front will sag across the area, clearing skies
and the late March sun will help to rebound temperatures to warmer
values. Given that, the plains will warm into the 50s, the valleys
reaching into the upper 30s to 40s, and the mountains rising into
the 20s.

Tonight: For Wednesday night, weather conditions become even
quieter. A ridge of high pressure will begin to push over the area
behind the aforementioned exiting trough. This feature will bring
increased subsidence to south central and southeastern Colorado, and
given that, dry conditions are expected over the region. Looking at
temperatures, another chilly night is anticipated. Clearing skies
will allow for better radiational cooling, but modest downsloping
winds will bring minor warming. With that all said, the plains will
sink into the 20s, the valleys dropping into the 10s to low 20s, and
the mountains cooling into the upper single digits. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Thursday and Friday:

A weak upper level ridge will be just to the east of Colorado at the
beginning of the long term forecast period (Thursday at 6am) and in
its place will be west-southwesterly flow aloft and a narrow jet
streak that sets up orthogonally to the topography of our southern
Colorado Mountains. Gusty winds of around 30 mph are expected to
develop over the mountain valleys and the Spanish Peaks Region and
the relative humidity (RH) values will be in the upper teens. All of
this equates to marginal meteorological fire weather conditions,
however recent precipitation will keep the fine fuels moist enough
to avoid any fire weather highlights. With the dry air mass expected
to be in place the fuels are expected to cure quickly leading for
the potential to be cured enough for critical fire weather
conditions into the weekend.

A similar set up is expected on Friday, but the gusty winds are
expected to be more widespread over the plains. With the Pacific
based moisture being advected towards Colorado the mountain valley
RH values increase to the mid 20s, whereas the plains will remain
similar with their RH values. So another day of near critical fire
weather conditions expected over the plains - not so much for the
mountain valleys.

Saturday and Sunday:

An upper level low pressure system will skirt down the coast of
California and its associated jet streak will begin to interact with
the sub-tropical jet streak enhancing the speeds to around 150kts
oriented from the southwest to northeast. All of this translate to
another day of near critical and critical fire weather conditions.
The uncertainties are based around what the RH values will be - I
think there will be more clarity once the higher resolution models
start resolving the storm, but RH values are currently forecast to
be in the upper teens to low 20s and wind speeds will range from 30
to 35 mph with locally higher values. The fine fuels over the plains
should be cured by Saturday, but as of this time the entire region
is considered to have critical fuels besides zones 222 and 223
(Fremont and the eastern San Juans / La Garita Mountains).

Sunday looks to have the best set-up for critical fire weather
conditions over the plains as the strong jet streak continues to
propagate east. Wind speeds will range from 30 to 40 mph with
locally higher gusts and RH values are right around 15% even with
the course resolution guidance. Ensembles and deterministic models
agree that snow should start over the Continental Divide by Sunday
morning.

Monday and Tuesday:

There are a lot of complex interactions that models struggle to
resolve this far out (even when it is closer too!). The hardest
thing to resolve are strong low pressure systems, in this case there
are two low pressure centers interacting with each other throughout
this storm`s life cycle over the US west. Currently longer term
models and ensembles drop a strong cold front over the plains Monday
morning creating precip over the eastern mountains and the plains
through Tuesday morning. There will be the typical issues with
Spring storms in Colorado - where will it be cold enough for snow?
Will the strong northerlies create relatively dry conditions over
the lower Arkansas River Valley? Do the dynamics of the system
overpower the influence of orography? All of which will hopefully be
answered as better data arrives with time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Clouds will decrease in coverage this morning, before mid
level clouds expand in coverage again during the afternoon for all
three TAF sites. Winds will remain light this morning and this
evening into tomorrow morning, with winds increasing during the
afternoon hours today, especially for KALS. While there is a chance
for gusty showers this afternoon, confidence in coverage is low, so
no VCSH has been mentioned at this time. The more likely scenario is
areas of virga with highly localized gusty winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...SIMCOE


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