318
FXUS61 KRLX 301704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
104 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today into
tonight. High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend
Wednesday into Friday. Shower chances increase for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 940 AM Tuesday...

Updated POPS with the latest meso models to better represent
timing of precipitation and thunderstorms today.


As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Updated PoPs to get the best timing for precipitation onset
today. Thunderstorm activity seems to be a lesser threat today
with better chances across SE Ohio, NE Kentucky and along the
Ohio River later this morning. WPC has backed off on the
excessive rainfall risk for our area today as PWATs and QPF are
trending downward as well.

As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Slow moving, weak cold front to our west will gradually inch
closer this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of
the front will affect the area today as the front knocks on the
door. Not expecting severe weather with this system but heavy
downpours are possible today with PWATs between 1.00" and 1.30".
WPC subsequently has the area outlooked in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. After the recent dry spell though most of
the rain will be needed and only expecting localized water
issues for locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rain.

High temperatures are trending downward due to increased
cloud cover and moisture today. Going to see quite a cool down
today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Models are showing weak lapse rates, LI, MUCAPE and
SBCAPE due to the weaker nature of this front. However, there
looks enough 0-3km instability to manifest some isolated
thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder within some heavier showers
this afternoon.

The front briefly stalls this evening, bisecting the forecast area,
before lifting north as a warm front overnight into Wednesday
morning. Showers will taper off early this evening as a result,
becoming more centralized along the mountains overnight before
pushing out early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

A weak cold front stalls north of the region Wednesday night
amidst high zonal flow aloft yielding little in the way of
sensible weather concerns. This high zonal pattern gives way to
a building longwave ridge Thursday yielding continuing dry and
increasingly hot conditions for Thursday and most of the day
Friday.

50th percentile guidance is rather high for daytime highs both
days. Deterministic central guidance reflects highs several
degrees lower. Even these might be a little high given the
flush state of Spring vegetation across most of the area,
especially on Friday when at least some Gulf influence moisture
should start returning to the area prior to maximum heating.
This is likely a result of the 30 day bias period looking back
before we were properly greened up. Temperature records are
most likely secure with most reflecting values higher than even
the rather aggressive 75th percentile guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along with surface low pressure transiting
the Upper Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values
edge up toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front
associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night.
Upper level support for this feature largely stays well to the
north allowing the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday.
This will also keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding
relatively slow storm motions. Could potentially have some very
isolated water issues with multiple slow moving storms moving
over the same location, but given the state of vegetation and
recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

The weak flow pattern persists through the weekend featuring mainly
diurnally driven convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM Tuesday...

CIGs gradually lowering this morning as showers filter in from
the west our due to a cold front located across IN/OH. CIGs
look to remain mostly low-end VFR with pockets of MVFR through
the day. MVFR will be more prominent early this afternoon as
more widespread shower activity moves across.

There does remain the chance for some isolated thunderstorms
this morning/early afternoon due to instability from heating,
so left VCTS in at most sites to cover the possibility; more
certainty for thunderstorms remains in the afternoon hours,
especially for western most sites of HTS and PKB where more lift
will be from the front.

Will start to see showers and thunderstorms tapering off from
west to east by ~00Z, but chances will remain in the mountains
overnight. MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions will likely remain
across this area as well. Widespread dense fog will be a strong
possibility at most sites tonight into Wednesday with recent
rainfall across the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shower and thunderstorm timing and location
may vary from forecast. CIGs may be lower than forecast today.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC