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000
FXUS61 KRNK 191528
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1128 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across our area today, exiting to
the coast tonight. Temperatures will return to a more seasonal
levels this weekend. A front over the southeast could keep
chance of showers across southern Virginia into North Carolina
Sunday, before high pressure nudges in Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Low clouds in the Piedmont through early afternoon

2) Showers/scattered storms today. Marginal risk of severe storms
especially along/south of the VA/NC border this afternoon.

Tracking area of showers with embedded thunderstorms crossing
I-77 corridor. This appears to be associated with mid-upper
level vorticity which can be seen per water vapor imagery.
Activity has been producing about 1-2 tenths of an inch of rain.
Models weaken this area precip as it nears the Blue Ridge,
encountering a stable easterly wind. Shallow wedge of marine air
extends from Blue Ridge all the way to the coast associated
with low level stratus. This wedge generally defines a surface warm
front which extends from ROA-GSO with east winds over the
piedmont and southwest winds through the NRV over to about the
Blue Ridge. With afternoon heating would think low stratus and
stable will erode but not confident it will be quick enough for
any substantial build-up of CAPE.

In general...lots of cloud cover inhibiting solar insolation,
but do think opportunity for sunny breaks to provide for some
increasing instability mid-late afternoon, esp along and south
of the VA/NC border. Latest convective allowing models suggest
best chance for shower/storm redevelopment to occur over the NC
foothills and piedmont with marginal risk for severe
storms...wind and hail being the primary threat. Even with the
CAMS, not a high confidence forecast as models are varying on
coverage of storms.

A cold front extends from PIT-BNA. This front will cross the
area this evening, introducing lower dewpoints and cooler
temperatures for tonight and Saturday. Shower chances may linger
until about midnight, then wane thereafter. Skies likely to
stay fairly cloudy most of the night with some clearing toward
dawn. Variations exist in the models with respect to cloud
cover late tonight so low confidence in tonight`s sky
conditions and temperature. More cloud cover will keep lows
elevated and cooler if skies clear. For now went close to MOS
with mid to upper 40s west to mid 50s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:
1. Near normal temperatures, cooler on Sunday.
2. Precipitation chances increase Sunday south of VA border.
3. Dry weather on Monday.

By the start of the weekend, the cold front that will have crossed
the area Friday will be situated along the Atlantic Coast, and
extending into the southeastern US. The front will stall along the
Gulf Coast states, leading to rain for most of the weekend for that
area. The upper low associated with this front will track
northeastward through Saturday, pulling the cold front away from the
coast. As the front shifts farther east, low pressure
strengthens some and the precipitation may reach as far north
as the VA/NC border by Sunday. However, with a surface high
pushing into the area from the west, the highest probabilities
for precipitation stay farther south. The surface high will
expand eastward, and become centered over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by Monday, keeping the central Appalachians dry for the
start of the work week.

The 500mb flow will become more zonal through the weekend, but
turning more northwesterly over the area by the beginning of the
week, as the upper trough lifts farther away. This, and the surface
high, will lead to a few days of cooler temperatures, although they
will be closer to seasonal normals. Sunday looks to be the coolest
day of this forecast period, as the colder air fills in behind the
front.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:
1. Increasing temperatures Tuesday.
2. Another chance for rain on Wednesday, highest chances in the
mountains.
3. Dry weather returns for Thursday.

The surface high pressure that will have kept the area dry through
Monday will shift southeast, but still keeping the area mostly dry
through Tuesday. A surface low pressure system will track across the
northern tier of the US through the beginning of the work week,
while its cold front reaches from the upper Midwest into the central
Plains by Tuesday. This will advance towards the east, crossing the
Appalachians by Wednesday. This will be the next chance for
precipitation for the area, with the highest chances in the
mountains late Tuesday into Wednesday. The 500mb trough associated
with this surface front will stay well to the north of the area,
along with the better upper dynamics, which will limit the coverage
of precipitation over the area.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will bump temperatures up
to above normal on Tuesday. After the frontal passage Wednesday,
high pressure pushes southward back into the area, which will bring
dry conditions back, but also drop temperatures below normal for the
second half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 639 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). MVFR, possible IFR east of the Blue Ridge through 14z.

2). Decaying area of precipitation with MVFR ceilings spread
into the western parts of the CWA after 12Z.

3). Scattered showers/thunderstorms potentially redevelop along
frontal boundary mid-late Friday afternoon, but low confidence
on coverage east of WV.

High clouds working in from convective blowoff over the Ohio
Valley. Low clouds on easterly flow advancing westward toward
LYH/DAN and will likely see some MVFR, possible IFR at LYH/DAN
in the 12-16z time frame, and even ROA may be getting this.

Area of convection over KY appears to weaken as it moves toward
our mountains this morning, so am keeping showers out except
BLF, as thinking coverage may not be as great east of here. Will
mainly have VCSH in the west this morning except BLF where MVFR
cigs/vsbys are likely in the 11-17z time frame.

By late morning into the afternoon, storms will be scattered
around so have VCTS everywhere except LYH/DAN where think
coverage is more widely scattered later in the day.

Looking at mainly dry after 00z with VFR returning for most,
except holding on to lower MVFR cigs at BLF, possibly LWB.

Appears skies clear out late in the west and parts of the east
though confidence is low.

Winds today will be turning more south to southwest ahead of the
front, then west-northwest behind it Friday evening.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

The aforementioned cold front will exit to the south and east
of the CWA by Saturday. Some MVFR ceilings may linger across the
mountains Saturday morning. North winds will provide some
clearing for late Saturday, but more moisture may surge
northeastward during Sunday and Monday to bring another chance
of rain as low pressure rides across the southeastern states.
Confidence in the later scenario is quite low at this time.

Another front approaches by middle of next week though shower
chances and sub-VFR are not expected to be that great.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...RAB/WP