National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 141812
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
112 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through early this week.
  Slightly below normal temperatures then return late this week
  into next weekend.

- Potential for scattered storms developing across portions of
  central Missouri Monday afternoon and evening. Overall
  confidence is low in these affecting our area, with better
  chances north.

- Severe thunderstorms possible across the area late Monday
  night and Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates.

- Gusty winds will occur Monday through Wednesday. Strongest
  winds will occur on Tuesday with south winds gusting up to
  40-50 mph at times.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms return
  Thursday into Friday and could linger into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A weak upper level disturbance is currently moving across the
region early this morning as an upper level ridge is over the
Plains. The upper level disturbance will move off to the east
today as the upper level ridge moved east over the area tonight
into Monday. A warm air mass will remain over the region as
highs warm into the lower to middle 80s again this afternoon.
Gusty southerly winds will occur today but will not be as
strong as they were yesterday. A few gusts up to 25 to 30 mph
will be possible at times mainly west of Highway 65 this morning
into early this afternoon. Lows tonight into Monday morning
will only cool to around the 60 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A warm front will move south across northern Missouri and will
move into and stall across central Missouri Monday morning. The
upper level ridge and the warm air mass will remain over the
region on Monday with highs again warming into the lower to
middle 80s. Clouds will likely start to increase across the area
during the day on Monday.

An upper level low that is currently located across the west
coast early this morning will move east into the Central Plains
Monday night and will lift northeast into Iowa Tuesday
evening/night before moving off to the northeast on Wednesday.
Surface low pressure will also develop across the Plains Monday
evening and will move east into Iowa Tuesday evening. Gusty
southerly winds will occur Monday through Wednesday as the
surface low moves northeast. The strongest winds will occur on
Tuesday when gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible at times.

An EML and cap will be in place across the area on Monday, but
above the EML some uncapped MUCAPE could develop near the warm
front Monday afternoon and evening. The warm front will be
stalled across central Missouri Monday morning into the
afternoon hours. As the surface low moves into the Plains the
warm front will lift back to the north. As this occurs,
scattered storms will be possible along the warm front. The warm
front will be over or just north of the area as this occurs.
There is still some questions on exactly where the front will
be, however expecting it to be near or over the northern
portions of the area. There will be a small window for scattered
storms over the far northern portions of the area late Monday
afternoon/early Monday evening if the front stalls across this
area, but with the front moving north the activity should move
out of the area fairly quickly. If the front stalls just north
of the area these storm chances will also be north of the area.
There will be the potential for small hail with these storms.

As the surface low moves across the Plains, a dry line will
move across Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday afternoon and evening.
Storms will develop ahead of the dry line during Monday evening
and night. The dry line/cold front will remain west of the area
through the overnight hours, but models are showing clusters of
storms developing and moving out ahead of the front. This
activity could start to push into the far western portions of
the area late Monday night with the better chances occurring
Tuesday morning. These storms will be elevated in nature and
there could be the potential for marginally severe hail with a
few of the strongest storms. If any line segments can develop
there could also be a localized wind risk with any bowing
segments that can overcome the surface based cap that will be in
place. This morning convection should push east of the area in
the afternoon Tuesday.

The cold front will then push east into the area by Tuesday
afternoon. Models are showing that recovery in instability will
occur behind the morning convection and ahead of the front. The
strongest instability will likely remain north of the area
across Iowa and northern Missouri closer to the upper level low.
This area of higher instability could clip portions of central
Missouri. Supercells capable of very large hail will be
possible. Again, this risk appears to be better just north of
the area at this time. Further south, instability will not be
as strong as it is closer to the upper level low, however the
amount of deep layer shear will still support a strong to
severe risk with storms that develop. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main risk. The front will move east through
the area Tuesday afternoon and evening and the storms should
push east of the area by Tuesday night. The 850mb front will
linger behind the surface front and will push south through the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some uncapped
elevated instability may be able to develop along the 850mb
front Tuesday night, bringing the potential for some showers
and isolated storms to develop. Confidence in this occurring is
still low.

A drier air mass will move east into the western portions of the
area on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will actually warm
behind the front across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri as temperatures around 80 occur. This will result in
humidity values dropping to around 30 percent. These dry
conditions combining with the gusty winds could lead to an
elevated fire weather risk depending on how much rain these
locations received earlier in the day.

Highs will warm into the 70s on Wednesday. The ensemble model
members then indicate an upper level trough moving east across
the northern Plains and sending a cold front into the area
Thursday into Friday. Models are coming into better agreement
with this system but some timing differences still occur. Shower
chances will occur along the front, but instability will likely
be more limited. However a few thunderstorms could be possible
Thursday into Friday. Models then show the front moving slowly
across southern Missouri into Arkansas. If the front slows
across the area, some showers could linger into Saturday. If
the front is more progressive, the better rain chances will be
south of the area on Saturday. Behind the front, highs in the
60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s will occur late this
weekend into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Flight conditions across the Ozarks region are forecast to
remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will continue
into the evening, mainly for the KJLN area. Middle and high
level ceilings will begin to overspread the region Monday
morning around or after sunrise.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Record High Temperatures:

April 14:
KSGF: 88/1936
KJLN: 88/2006
KVIH: 87/2006
KUNO: 85/2006

April 15:
KSGF: 87/1924
KJLN: 86/2006
KVIH: 84/1955
KUNO: 84/1967

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Titus