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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190852
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
352 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A slowly advancing frontal boundary continues to shift SE near the
I-30 corridor early this morning, evident by the wind shift to the
NW and subsequent cool air advection. Ambient temperatures are in
the upper 50s to mid 60s north of the boundary compared to mostly
in the 70s south. As for convection, the only activity remains to
our north near the Little Rock metro area where a shortwave is
contributing to a few isolated strong to severe storms. With the
relative lack of forcing across our region today, convection will
remain hard to come by aside from just some very isolated showers
and perhaps a stray thunderstorm as the cold front continues its
slow but steady progression SE throughout the day. The speed of
the front could be problematic in terms of the high temperature
forecast for today, resulting in quite a spread from the mid and
upper 60s NW to the lower and mid 80s SE.

By early this evening, the cold front should be very near if not
clearing our far southern zones just as a series of shortwave
impulses begin to emerge across North Texas into the Middle Red
River Valley. As the first in this series of shortwave impulses
transitions through the W/SW flow pattern starting late tonight
through Saturday, expect showers to gradually become widespread
with embedded thunderstorms increasingly likely later in the day
on Saturday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler following
fropa with little movement expected throughout the day as highs
only manage the mid and upper 50s north into the lower 60s along
I-20 and slightly warmer farther south.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Convection will remain ongoing with the bulk of rainfall likely
coming on Saturday night through the first half of Sunday as the
primary shortwave pivots overhead. Total event rainfall amounts
will generally range from 1-3 inches across the region with the
heavier totals expected along and near the I-20 corridor. This
additional rainfall on top of what has already fallen earlier in
the month will likely contribute to more rises on area waterways,
albeit not to the degree that was previously observed based on the
current rainfall projections. Regardless, expect the ongoing minor
river flooding to persist along our area waterways still in flood,
likely extending well into next week if not longer.

As the last in this series of shortwaves finally departs by late
Sunday, dry weather will return and continue through early next
week. Advancing high pressure will eventually shift east of the
region by late Monday into early Tuesday, resulting in southerly
return flow and a warming trend that will push temperatures back
near seasonal averages for late April. Near zonal flow aloft will
continue through Tuesday before the pattern becomes more unsettled
by mid to late week. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak trough
advancing eastward from the Plains into mid-section of the country
by Tuesday night into Wednesday with fairly low-end rain chances
across our region. However, a much more potent trough is progged
to shift our direction by the end of next week, showing signals of
our next potential for severe weather by the end of this forecast
period next Friday.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a weak front over the plains will
edge down along I-20, shifting our winds from S to vrb and then
N/NE for the day ahead around 10KT or less this aftn. IFR/MVFR
cigs with light BR and slight chance for some stray shwrs/isold
TS along and S of I-30 for a few hrs, then shifting down to along
I-20 by daybreak. This fropa is the beginning of NE winds that
will continue all wknd w/ another couple of upper impulses riding
along the front through Sat. Skies will clear out Sun aftn.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  57  63  51 /  20  40  80  90
MLU  79  56  63  50 /  20  20  60  90
DEQ  68  49  57  46 /  20  70  90  80
TXK  70  53  57  48 /  20  60  90  90
ELD  70  49  58  46 /  20  50  80  90
TYR  73  57  62  50 /  20  60  90 100
GGG  74  56  62  49 /  20  50  80 100
LFK  84  64  74  51 /  20  20  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24