840
FXUS01 KWBC 131959
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 00Z Tue May 14 2024 - 00Z Thu May 16 2024

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of
the Gulf Coast tonight and the Southeast on Tuesday...

...Above-average temperatures expected for South Florida and the
West...

A slow-moving frontal boundary extending along the Gulf Coast will
remain a focus for unsettled weather, with severe thunderstorms
and heavy rain expected to impact portions of the region through
Tuesday.  Ongoing showers and storms are likely to continue
through tonight, with severe storms expected from south-central
and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the
Florida Panhandle.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
highlighted these areas with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for
severe weather, indicating the potential exists for multiple
corridors of damaging winds, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.
 In addition to the severe weather threat, abundant moisture
pooling along front will support heavy rainfall and the potential
for flooding.  A Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall
extends along the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas through the
Florida Panhandle, with a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) from southeast
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

Drier air will push through the western Gulf Coast, confining the
threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall to northern Florida
and southern Georgia on Tuesday.  SPC is indicating a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) for severe weather and WPC is highlighting the area
with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

Further to the north, a low pressure system will drift slowly
east, spreading showers and thunderstorms from the lower Missouri
and mid Mississippi valleys to the Ohio Valley tonight.  Showers
and storms will continue across these areas on Tuesday while
expanding east through the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.
Unsettled weather will persist across the Mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast through Wednesday.  A brief window of drier weather over
the Mississippi Valley late Tuesday into early Wednesday will be
followed by the next round of showers and storms that will begin
to spread into the region by late Wednesday.

Before impacting the central U.S. on Wednesday, this previously
noted system will spread showers and storms followed by much
cooler temperatures from the northern Rockies into central Rockies
and High Plains on Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain well above-normal, with near to record
high temperatures expected across South Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday.  While not expected to be record-setting, temperatures
will build across much of the West, reaching well-above normal
highs across the region by midweek.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$