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000
FXUS62 KTAE 121726
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Minor changes to capture the diurnal rise in temps this morning
based off the latest trends. Model soundings today indicate a
well-mixed boundary layer in the wake of a surface trough this
afternoon and evening. As a result, lowered dew points a couple
of degrees and bumped wind gusts up, especially north of I-10.
Across portions of AL/GA, wind gusts will range from the mid-
20s to low 30s, with iso gusts in the mid to upper 30s possible
if we tap the top of the mixed-layer.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy and dry conditions are expected today in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front. High temps will be slightly cooler today,
ranging from the low to mid 70s. The biggest post-frontal change
will be felt in low temperatures tonight due to the much drier air
mass overhead, with lows falling into the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

High pressure over the region will lead to a dry weekend with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80 Saturday afternoon and the lower to
middle 80s Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will generally be in the
lower 50s, with a few of the traditionally colder spots possibly
dipping into the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface high pressure moseys into the Atlantic and will provide a
light to moderate southeasterly flow much of next week. Temperatures
will respond by climbing into the middle 80s each afternoon with
overnight lows warming from the middle 50s Sunday night to the lower
60s by Tuesday night. It`s worth mentioning that H85 temperatures
are forecast to increase to 15-17 degrees Celsius by mid to late
next week. That`s warm enough to support upper 80s for highs by
Wednesday and Thursday. High clouds streaming in from the southwest
should temper temperatures a little. Still, there is an outside
chance (less than 10%) of a few spots reaching 90 degrees for the
first time this year later next week.

Rain chances will remain out of the forecast through the period.
However, guidance is hinting at the possibility of a cold front late
next week that may bring a small chance of rain next Friday. Until
then, we get a chance to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions throughout the period. Breezy northwesterly winds
expected to continue throughout the afternoon with gusts of over
20 knots. By tomorrow morning, winds should subside to a steady
3-6 knots from the northwest. Clear skies for the region during
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A surface trough crossing the waters today will result in a period
of elevated winds this afternoon and evening, along with lingering
seas near 6 feet over the waters west of the Ochlockonee River.
Marine conditions will slowly improve tonight and Saturday as
surface high pressure settles over the region, bringing light to
moderate northwesterly to northerly winds through Saturday, before
turning more easterly to southeasterly Sunday afternoon and beyond.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy winds and high mixing heights will lead to high dispersions
across the area for at least today and tomorrow. Dry conditions in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front will lead to minimum relative
humidity near 25% to 35% in the afternoons today and Saturday. A
gradual warming and moistening trend is forecast to kick off Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Flood Warnings continue at Concord, Thomasville, Lamont, Valdosta
Skipper Bridge, St Marks Newport, and Quitman. A new Flood
Warning was issued last night for Spring Creek Iron City.

Mainstem and smaller rivers/creeks continue to rise after Thursday
morning`s torrential rain event. As a result, a period of minor to
moderate riverine flooding is expected to continue through the
weekend and into next week. The axis of heaviest rainfall was
generally aligned from near Lake Seminole eastward along the FL/GA
line to the eastern portion of our area, though some extremely heavy
amounts of 8-10 inches were reported near Tallahassee and
northeastward through Valdosta, some of this rain occurring in a 3-5
hour period.

This rainfall distribution will affect the Apalachicola,
Ochlockonee, Withlacoochee, Suwannee, and Aucilla Rivers the most.
In fact, given that the entire Aucilla River basin received rainfall
in the 7-9 inch range, it is possible that high end moderate
flooding occurs, and could approach a long standing record at
Lamont.

For the Apalachicola, local inflows into Lake Seminole will lead to
increased releases with Blountstown getting into minor flood
early this morning.

Along the Ochlockonee River, steady rises are continuing throughout
the basin. Routed flows progressing downstream will lead to mostly
minor flooding, though moderate flooding is expected at Concord,
affecting CR-12 in Leon County.

For the Withlacoochee River, rises continue steadily at Valdosta and
local runoff is resulting in rises are all the way through Pinetta.
Minor flooding is expected throughout this basin, though it is
possible that Pinetta could reach the moderate flood level early
next week.

For the Suwannee, this will take a considerable amount of time for
water to process through the system, and there is always the
possibility of water loss downward into the Floridan Aquifer.
However, with the Withlacoochee, Alapaha and Upper Suwannee
components all getting hit with heavy rainfall, it would not be
surprising to see minor riverine flooding at most forecast points on
the mainstem Suwannee from Ellaville southward through Wilcox in the
coming days. Moderate flooding is not expected.

With no additional rainfall anticipated for the next several days,
this event will turn into monitoring routed flows through the river
system into next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        47  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        47  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    50  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  73  58  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Porcelli
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Godsey