Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240200
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1000 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The current forecast is on track, so no need to updated the
forecast this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A cold front will exit the region this afternoon, with breezy north
to northwest winds following behind it. Expect skies to gradually
clear as drier air moves in with temperatures falling into the mid
to upper 40s across most of SW GA and SE AL. In FL low temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 40s in the far western FL
Panhandle, with upper 50s to low 50s expected along the coast and in
the Big Bend. Tomorrow, look partly sunny skies with highs in the
mid 60s to near 70 for SW GA, the low 70s in SE AL, and the low to
mid 70s for FL counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Surface and upper-level ridging remain in place through Monday,
though it begins to break down late Monday afternoon into Monday
night. A longwave trough starts ejecting into the Mississippi
Valley with a cold front over Mississippi and Louisiana by
daybreak Tuesday. Thus, quiet weather remains for one more day with
moderating temperatures. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper
40s to lower 50s, moderating to the 50s and 60s by Monday night.
Highs Monday will be in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The aforementioned trough slowly slides into the eastern part of
the nation by Thursday. The parent low moves into the Hudson Bay
region of Canada with a long trailing cold front all the way down
to the Gulf Coast. Thus, with the best source of lift and upper-
level support departing, the front really slows down, but where
that slows down and possibly stalls is the question. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday, but will decrease in
coverage farther east. Severe weather appears questionable right
now given that the best dynamics will be quickly departing to our
north, and the instability appears to be lacking.

The next kicker shortwave arrives Wednesday, which will provide
the final push to our front. This should also spur cyclogenesis
along the front, but where this happens will have implications on
any severe or heavy rain threat.

Ahead of the front, it will become windy as the pressure gradient
tightens across the area. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are possible.
This will also kick up the surf, and we could need a High Surf
Advisory for our beaches Tuesday. Temperatures will remain warm
through Wednesday, then cool Thursday post front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northerly winds will subside and low level clouds will clear out
in the next few hours. Winds become northeast and easterly through
the day on Sunday with speeds around and less than 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Strong northerly breezes will prevail into Sunday morning, in the
wake of a cold front that passed the northeast Gulf on Saturday. A
decrease to fresh breezes is expected after sunrise on Sunday,
before increasing again to advisory-level and clocking around out
of the east to southeast Sunday night. Winds will remain strong
through mid- week as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
approaching mid- week cold front. Some gusts to gale force are
possible Monday through Tuesday. Seas likewise will build to 6 to
10 feet through the early and middle part of the upcoming week.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will also increase Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The main fire weather concerns will be for high dispersions over the
next few days, with the eastern FL Big Bend tomorrow and areawide
Monday. MinRH values will be on the lower end tomorrow as well
around 25 to near 40 percent, with the higher RHs in the FL
counties. MinRH then gradually improves with dry weather prevailing
into early in the week. The next chance for rain moves in the
midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The only river that remains in flood stage is the Apalachicola
River at Blountstown, but that should fall below flood stage
overnight tonight or early Sunday morning given projected releases
from Woodruff Dam. We`ll have to see how the rain plays out next
week to determine any river flood threat. The GEFS/NAEFS currently
don`t depict any additional river flooding with the next system,
but the HEFS shows some potential along the Kinchafoonee.

Rainfall totals have come up slightly with this forecast package
for the upcoming mid-week system. A widespread 1 to 2 inches is
expected, but some ensembles show we could see more. It
ultimately depends on where the front stalls and reinvigorates.
The Weather Prediction Center has our far western areas outlined
in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for Tuesday
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) elsewhere. By Wednesday, the
Marginal Risk is for areas mainly east of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   51  74  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  74  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        46  71  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  71  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  74  50  80 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  68  58  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ750-
     752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young


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