783
FXUS62 KTBW 020807
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
407 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A fairly quiet morning across paradise...temperatures ranging from
the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Meanwhile, upper and
surface high pressure is expected to build through Friday. This
set up supports light easterly winds during the day and the
afternoon sea breeze shifting winds onshore. The E/W Coast breezes
collide over the interior, but limited moisture keeps rain
chances low (10-25%) during this time. On the other hand,
afternoon temperatures will be around 90 degrees across the state,
so residents and visitors should stay hydrated to prevent any
heat related illnesses.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

On Saturday, an upper level disturbance attempts to push across
the Peninsula but falls apart as it travels northeast. This could
support higher rain chances, especially to areas along the Nature
Coast late on Saturday and into Sunday. Bermuda High builds back
in with drier and very warm conditions prevail through the rest of
the period. If the current trend continues, we could experience
the warmest temperatures by the middle of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 90s possible. East to southeasterly winds should
be in place with the sea breeze shifting winds onshore each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions anticipated overnight and most of today across
terminals. Then, the sea breeze could bing the potential for
isolated showers and a storm or two to develop in the afternoon
hours, especially near LAL and PGD with a non zero chance for
FMY/RSW. The main concern would be gusty and erratic winds near
showers and temporary MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise,
easterly winds prevail, before shifting west behind the sea breeze
at SRQ/TPA/PIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridge of high pressure remains in control over the Gulf waters
through the period. Mostly rain free conditions are anticipated
with highest rain chances over land during this time. Winds should
remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for
pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is
expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Area of high pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over
fire districts through the period. Fairly low chances for showers
and isolated storms in the afternoon/evening today and Friday,
mainly over interior locations. This should be led by the sea breeze,
which would determine how far inland showers develop. Minimum
humidities should remain above critical levels today, on Friday could
get near 35 percent in central portions of the state. Easterly winds
prevail become onshore by the afternoon through Friday before
shifting from the south during the weekend. This is as a disturbance
moves over northern Florida. Rain chances increase into early next
week with no other concerns during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  71  91  72 /  20  10  10   0
FMY  90  69  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
GIF  91  68  91  68 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  89  69  91  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  92  64  91  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  88  73  89  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...ADavis