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000
FXUS62 KTBW 130732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An upper-level ridge is starting to build in from the west as a
trough axis propagates across New England. A large surface high
has settled over the N Gulf in response, with a light NW to NE
flow across the region. This flow continues to advect a dry,
continental airmass across the state. PW values from ACARS suggest
that today could be the driest April 13 on record. Regardless,
values are in the lowest 10 percent, meaning today is unusually
dry for this time of year.

The days to come won`t be much different as a dry, stable airmass
remains in place. The upper-level pattern is flattening out and a
broad upper-level ridge axis is expected to build over the
Caribbean Sea and northward into the Gulf of Mexico. As this
occurs, temperatures will warm overall as the flow veers, but the
days should still be dry with a very sluggish moisture recovery as
a ENE component prevails. The dewpoints do not even climb back
into the 60s before Wednesday. This favors warm afternoons, but
still milder evenings as the lack of moisture favors more
efficient cooling.

For the next seven days, this means that the weather should be very
quiet. The only point of note is that a prolonged stretch of dry
weather may once again impact drought conditions in a negative way
and fire weather concerns may grow the longer we stay dry. For now,
though, enjoy the nice, quiet weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

No significant aviation concerns as VFR conditions prevails for the
next few days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A westerly swell continues today, but is gradually subsiding with a
lighter flow. It will still be another couple days before risks for
small craft completely subside, however. After that point, a long
stretch of quiet and dry weather favors nice boating conditions for
all. There could, however, be a southerly swell later into next week
that brings 2 to 3 foot seas back to coastal waters.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Very dry weather will continue through the weekend with an extended
period of critical RH values expected. However, winds are light
enough and recent rains mean that red flag conditions are not
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  80  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  83  56  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  78  63  82  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery