Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

010
FXUS63 KTOP 212008
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Recent water vapor imagery indicating a weak upper wave centered
over eastern South Dakota and a somewhat stronger low over central
California with main jet axis over Canada. Nebulous surface high
pressure over the central Plains keeping wind fields fairly light
east of modest lee troughing. Stratus has nearly exited northeast
Kansas to the east as of 19Z.

Overall pattern for the next several days keeps a mean upper ridge
over the central CONUS with fairly persistent low pressure over the
southwest states. This keeps synoptic forcing rather weak, but also
prevents significant mid-level capping from developing. Temperatures
should return back above normal Tuesday and remain so into the
coming holiday weekend. Current record highs are generally in the
mid 90s and are unlikely to be reached. As for precipitation
chances, did keep some slight chances in northern areas late tonight
as isentropic upglide around 305K develops with some limited
saturation. Could see isolated activity brush this area despite the
modest lift and dry mid levels. Next best chance comes late Friday
into Friday night as the current southwest wave tops the ridge and
pushes east into the Great Lakes. This may bring a modest boundary
into the area and provide some focus for convection. As the week
progresses, however, it`s hard to completely rule out mainly
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms especially beyond Tuesday
night with only a very weak cap suggested. Have kept any fog out of
the forecast for tonight into early Tuesday despite only modest
daytime heating after the early-day stratus as winds aloft pick up
behind the exiting surface high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Clearing of low cloud nearing TOP and FOE from the west and trends
suggest VFR will occur/develop near 18Z. Southerly winds slowly
develop through this period, with enough increase above the
nocturnal inversion tonight to keep limiting BR from developing,
but this will be the main item to watch over the next 18 hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...65
Aviation...65



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.