Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252236
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
536 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A few storms are developing in far eastern KS this afternoon.
 Small hail and lightning are the main concerns with storms.

-A wintry mix is possible late this evening and tonight as
 colder air filters into the area, causing minor accumulations
 of ice and snow.

-A widespread hard freeze will occur early Wednesday morning.

-Much warmer weather returns late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

At 19Z (2:00 PM) today, surface low pressure was located over far
northeast KS with a cold front trailing to the south-southwest. The
upper low was displaced further west, over western KS. Minor amounts
of instability have developed in the warm sector environment ahead
of the surface boundary with mesoanalysis showing around 300 J/kg of
SBCAPE. Most CAMs were showing thunderstorm initiation ahead of the
boundary in far eastern and northeastern KS after 21/22Z. However,
recent radar trends have storms developing a little sooner. Small
hail could occur with the stronger storms and there`s at least a
slight chance for a funnel cloud in extreme northeast KS. Storms
should quickly exit the area to the east late this afternoon/early
this evening.

Attention then turns to winter weather occurring in the colder post-
frontal air as lift with the upper low moves over the area. Forecast
soundings from the RAP and HRRR show saturation through the
DGZ for a few hours this evening and tonight. The thinking is
that a brief mix of wintry precipitation could occur in the
transition to colder air, with a few hours of snow to follow.
Freezing drizzle could also develop as moisture decreases aloft.
However, forecast soundings also show a layer of drier air in
the lowest 1,000 ft at that time, leading to uncertainty in
drizzle occurring. Snow accumulations of around an inch look
most likely in far north-central KS where a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued until 4 AM tonight. Other locations
could see minor accumulations, but uncertainty in exact amounts
remains low, in part due to warm ground temps.

Low pressure quickly advances into the Upper Midwest by midday
tomorrow as high pressure and drier air move into the area from the
north. Temperatures will be quite chilly, struggling to warm into
the 40s Tuesday. Wind chills will be in the 30s at best due to
breezy northwest winds. A widespread hard freeze is then
expected Tuesday night with temps falling into the low 20s to
teens early Wednesday morning. Freeze headlines will be
considered for the southeastern portion of the CWA where the
growing season is more underway. A warming trend then commences
midweek with southerly flow returning. Highs should be back into
the 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Cold front passes through the terminals this evening with
restricted CIGS and VSBY tonight. Models are in good agreement
and will use the CAM consensus in timing wintry precip at the
terminals. This should be short lived with minor accumulations,
but there are already reports of -FZDZ before snow begins.
Conditions are expected to improve through the day Tuesday as
strong northwest winds advect in drier air.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-
KSZ020-KSZ034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters


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