Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KTOP 182311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to around 70
 degrees on Tuesday.

- Slightly cooler high temperatures expected by mid week into the
  weekend.

- Rain chances will increase early next week with a 60 to 80
 percent of rain and a few thunderstorms Sunday through Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Early this afternoon an amplified positive tilt upper trough
extended from Quebec, Canada, southwest into the mid MS River
valley. The mid and upper level flow, on the west side of the H5
trough axis, was northwestelry across the Plains. An upper high
over low block was noted across the western US. The southern
stream upper low continued to retrograde slowly westward into
southern CA. An upper ridge was centered across the Pacific
Northwest.

At the surface, low-level cold air advection continued across the
eastern Plains. A surface ridge of high pressure was centered across
central KS/central OK. Temperatures at Noon were only reaching
the mid 30s to lower 40s. There will probably be another 5
degrees of warming this afternoon, with temperatures only
reaching the mid to upper 40s, despite insolation.

Tonight through Tuesday night:

The surface ridge will build southeast into the lower MS River
Valley. Southwesterly surface winds on the west side of the surface
ridge axis across eastern KS will help high temperatures to warm
into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds look to be light, thus
I only expect a high fire danger given RHs may drop into the mid 20
percent range.

Wednesday through Thursday night:

An H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest. This
will kick the southern stream upper low over CA/AZ eastward across
the southern Plains. An upper trough over central Canada will dig
southeast into the Great Lakes States. The stronger low-level CAA
across the upper Midwest will cause a back door cold front to push
southwest across the CWA Wednesday morning. Expect high temperatures
to cool into the lower 50s along the NE border with lower 60s in the
far southeast counties of the CWA. As the southern stream H5 trough
shifts east across TX and OK, the stronger ascent will remain
south of the CWA. There could be a slight chance of showers that
move east across the far southern counties Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will reach the mid 50s north to
upper 50s south.

Friday through Friday night:

The Pacific northwest H5 trough will move east across the Northern
Plains early Friday morning. A surface cold front will push southeast
across the CWA Friday morning. The trough moving across the northern
Plains will amplify as it shifts east into the upper Midwest with an
H5 trough extending southward into the central Plains. The
combination of isentropic lift behind the front, along with
ascent ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide the CWA with a
20 to 30 percent chance of rain showers, which will shift east
of the CWA late Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will reach the
mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Saturday through Monday:

The surface front that passed through the CWA on Friday morning will
become stationary across central OK early Saturday morning. An
amplified upper level trough will move onshore across the western US
on Saturday and dig southeast into the southwestern US Sunday
afternoon.

Zonal to southwesterly mid level flow ahead of the H5 trough
across the central Rockies will cause a lee surface trough to
deepen across the high Plains. The southerly low level flow
north of the surface front over northern OK will increase
isentropic lift across the CWA during the day on Saturday.
Showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms will be
possible with rain chances around 30 percent Saturday afternoon
increasing to 50 to 60 percent Saturday night.

The surface warm front will push northward across the CWA into
southern NE on Sunday morning. So we could see a break in the
rain and thunderstorms early Sunday. Sunday Afternoon the H5
trough across the southwestern US will begin to lift northeast
across NM, and then into western KS by 12Z MON. DCVA ahead of
the H5 trough combined with sfc convergence ahead of a surface
front moving southeast across the CWA Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night will allow widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms to develop. There may be a few stronger
thunderstorms Sunday evening ahead of the surface front if the
warm sector can destabilize Sunday afternoon.

the surface front will push southeast of the CWA Monday morning, as
the H5 trough moves east across KS. Expect periods of rain northwest
of the surface front as isentropic lift develops in combination with
strong ascent from DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis. There may be
enough MUCAPE for some elevated thunderstorms on Monday. Strong low-
level CAA will develop behind the front and morning highs in the mid
to upper 40s across north central KS may drop into the 30s through
the afternoon hours. Highs around 60 degrees in east central KS
may drop into the 40s Monday afternoon with a strong northwest
surface wind. The rain may mix with snow Monday across north
central KS.

The extended range models are in fairly close agreement with the
track of the southwestern US H5 trough lifting northeast across the
Plains. The ECMWF and Canadian show higher QPF across the CWA, while
the GFS forecast higher QPF amounts north and east of the CWA, but
the GFS still shows the potential for over half inch of QPF.

The LREF-NH ensembles show a 50 to 60 percent of over 1 inch of QPF
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A cold front will
move through the area tomorrow afternoon. Southwesterly wind
will become northerly behind the front, but speeds will
generally be 10 knots or less.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Jones


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.