Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 212255
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
555 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Recent water vapor imagery indicating a weak upper wave centered
over eastern South Dakota and a somewhat stronger low over central
California with main jet axis over Canada. Nebulous surface high
pressure over the central Plains keeping wind fields fairly light
east of modest lee troughing. Stratus has nearly exited northeast
Kansas to the east as of 19Z.

Overall pattern for the next several days keeps a mean upper ridge
over the central CONUS with fairly persistent low pressure over the
southwest states. This keeps synoptic forcing rather weak, but also
prevents significant mid-level capping from developing. Temperatures
should return back above normal Tuesday and remain so into the
coming holiday weekend. Current record highs are generally in the
mid 90s and are unlikely to be reached. As for precipitation
chances, did keep some slight chances in northern areas late tonight
as isentropic upglide around 305K develops with some limited
saturation. Could see isolated activity brush this area despite the
modest lift and dry mid levels. Next best chance comes late Friday
into Friday night as the current southwest wave tops the ridge and
pushes east into the Great Lakes. This may bring a modest boundary
into the area and provide some focus for convection. As the week
progresses, however, it`s hard to completely rule out mainly
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms especially beyond Tuesday
night with only a very weak cap suggested. Have kept any fog out of
the forecast for tonight into early Tuesday despite only modest
daytime heating after the early-day stratus as winds aloft pick up
behind the exiting surface high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Think VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Tuesday. Much of the
guidance shows enough mixing in the boundary layer to preclude any
ground fog at this time. There may be some potential for LLWS at
MHK, but the focus of the low level jet stays mainly to the west,
so will only monitor conditions for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...Wolters



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