Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 120518
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect north of I-70 until 7 PM.

- Elevated fire weather across parts of central KS Tuesday
afternoon, followed by low (15-20%) chance of storms in far east
central KS

- Staying warm into mid-week with increasing chances for showers and
storms Wednesday night into Thursday

- Becoming cooler late this week into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Water vapor imagery at 19Z indicates a weak upper wave
near the Red River valley has been dissipating as it heads toward
Arkansas. This keeps upper ridging dominant over our area for the
time being ahead of a troughing pattern over the western US.
Deepening lee sfc trough has led to a tightening pressure gradient
in the forecast area with gusty south-southwesterly winds bringing
warm temperatures for early March in the low 70s. While winds should
somewhat decrease overnight, the pressure gradient doesn`t look to
relax much and should keep breezy conditions through the nighttime
hours. Lows are forecast to be mild in the 40s area-wide.

The sfc low is progged to move across the area Tuesday, resulting in
decreasing winds into the afternoon and especially evening. These
implications on fire weather are discussed in greater detail in the
fire discussion below. If recent trends with short-term models
bringing drier air further east are realized, this would continue to
push the better moisture advection further east of the area.
Additionally, forecast soundings from the RAP (one of the drier
solutions) show an abundance of dry air that would make it difficult
for convection to sustain itself. The more probable scenario is for
thunderstorms to develop east of the area where the best surface
convergence and moisture come together. However, initialization
looks close enough to the eastern edge of the area to maintain 15-
20% PoPs along and southeast of the KS Turnpike for a brief period
in the early evening. If a storm can develop, instability and shear
would be supportive of large hail or gusty winds, but any storms
would quickly move off to the east.

As the western trough advances east, a piece of energy looks to
break off and traverse across the central Plains. This brings an
associated sfc low moving northeastward across the state Wednesday
night through Thursday. Overall not much has changed with this part
of the forecast, as the warm front looks to be placed near the KS/NE
border by Wednesday evening, leading to higher PoPS (above 50%)
being focused across northern KS at that time. The current forecast
track of the system could place the area within the dry slot through
Thursday, leading to probabilities lowering to 20-40%. Ensemble data
generally has most locations receiving under a half inch of QPF, and
the current forecast has totals up to 0.3" near the KS/NE border
where higher chances are favored.

Beyond Thursday, after that system moves out of the area, longer
range guidance shows the main trough to the west trying to become
cut off and spin over the southwestern US. Cooler temperatures are
forecast behind Thursday`s cold front, with highs in the 50s Friday.
A slight warm-up is forecast Saturday before a reinforcing push of
cooler air arrives out of the northern stream trough, dropping highs
back to the 50s next Sunday with lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR TAFs will be expected through the period at all sites with
winds and LLWS being the main concerns. A strong low-level jet
will be present this morning until around 8-9 AM Tuesday and
will create LLWS within the lowest 2000 feet. Surface winds will
remain out of the south around 10 knots until increasing with
gusts for a few hours in the afternoon Tuesday. Winds will shift
to the west and weaken by sunset Tuesday with mostly clear
skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CST Sun Mar 10 2024

RH values so far today have fallen to around 25% across northern KS
while SSW winds are gusting near 30mph. There may be a brief time
window when Red Flag criteria could be reached this afternoon during
peak heating. RH is then expected to recover this evening into the
30s and 40s. As for Tuesday, short-term models (particularly hi-res
guidance) appear to be in agreement on a dry punch of air moving in
behind the sfc low in the afternoon with a sharp dryline becoming
established in the eastern part of the area by late afternoon. This
could bring RH values as low as 20-25% in parts of central KS. The
good news is winds should gradually decrease through the afternoon
as the sfc trough axis pushes across the area, helping to limit the
fire weather potential. However, the dry air brings enough concern
for elevated fire danger so burning is still not recommended,
particularly with winds shifting from the southwest to the west
behind the boundary.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Picha


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