Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251712
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1212 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Early this morning, an embedded mid-level shortwave was noted over
central and eastern KS as a weak mid-level trough skimmed eastward
across the Northern Plains.  Late last night into early this morning
a cluster a storms developed beneath this passing shortwave over
central KS, with additional support from some isentropic lift and a
25-30kt LLJ.  As of 08z, storms continued to progress eastward
toward east central KS, however the associated outflow boundary had
accelerated well ahead of this precipitation.  Additional showers
and storms were developing over far western Missouri, and while much
of this activity should remain east of the CWA we will have to
monitor how these storms will interact with the approaching outflow
boundary, so have some slight chance PoPs in across the far eastern
edge of the CWA. Short-range models continue to struggle with the
evolution of precipitation chances today into tonight, however the
prevailing trend is for the cluster of showers and storms to
continue to progress into east central KS this morning with some
additional development along the lingering outflow boundary over far
east central KS.  Models show this precipitation diminishing by mid
to late morning, with the clearing skies and light southwesterly
winds supporting afternoon high temperatures surging into the upper
80s to mid 90s, which is 10-15F degrees above the seasonal normals.

By tonight, a mid-level ridge will build northward into the High
Plains region, with a cold front stretching across Nebraska. Some
models show the potential for some scattered showers and storms to
develop along this boundary and progress southward toward the CWA.
However, models show much of this activity dissipating as is reaches
the area.  As a result, have kept a dry forecast across north
central KS for tonight.  With regards to any storms that develop
today into this evening, cannot rule out the potential for a few
strong storms to develop with 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and a relatively
weak cap present.  However, with weak 25kt to maybe 30kt 0-6km bulk
shear, any stronger storms that develop will struggle to sustain
themselves.  As a result, small hail and gusty winds will be the
primary hazards with any strong storms that develop.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

On Saturday a midlevel low pressure will track over the Great Basin
causing a ridge aloft to build over the plains. With the lack of
synoptic forcing diurnally driven thunderstorms will be still be
possible, but the better chances are southeast of the forecast area.
Attention then turns to the heat that accompanies the ridge as highs
reach the mid to upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Dew points are
expected to generally be in the 60s and upper 50s so the heat
indices make it into the upper 90s and lower 100s. On Saturday it
appears eastern KS will have a weak surface pressure gradient since
the lee-side trough remains across the high plains. The lack of wind
and heat should make it feel quite oppressive. On Sunday the lee-
side trough shifts eastward so wind speeds are slightly higher. By
Monday and Tuesday the midlevel low pressure lifts over UT allowing
southwest flow aloft to overspread the region. Any potential
shortwave troughs will supply lift for thunderstorms in the high
plains, which could progress eastward into the area. Any lingering
convective outflows could become the focus for develop similar to
the conditions this week. With deep layer shear decreasing closer
to the ridge aloft the chances of organized severe storms is
marginal. Next week high temperatures will remain in the 90s, but
the dew points slightly increase and so the heat indices do not
improve. Given that we just went through the 3rd coldest April and
now we are experiencing July temperatures and humidity people
might not be used to the heat. With outdoor activities increasing
heat safety may be the main message to highlight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected to persist as satellite shows MCV
drifting south of the forecast area. Low clouds or fog appear
unlikely due to a general lack of forcing or low level moisture
advection.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Record High Temperatures for May 25th:
Topeka: 95, set in 1953
Concordia: 97, set in 1967

Record High Temperatures for May 26th:
 Topeka: 95, set in 1964
Concordia: 98, set in 2012

Record High Temperatures for May 27th:
Topeka:  92, set in 2006
Concordia:  95, set in 2006

Record High Temperatures for May 28th:
Topeka: 93, set in 2012
Concordia:  96, set in 1921

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Hennecke



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