Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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754 FXUS63 KTOP 080548 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1248 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated showers possible tonight near Nebraska border, isolated strong storm possible southeast of I-35 Wednesday morning. - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Broad westerly flow aloft per water vapor imagery across the central and south central CONUS this afternoon with the upper low center rotating through the Dakotas. The Pacific cold front that passed through last evening is currently located over western MO. Much drier and welcoming conditions this afternoon with full sunshine aiding highs to the upper 70s. The next embedded midlevel vort max enters the region this evening as an inverted sfc trough traversing southern KS advects dewpoints back into the low 50s towards far eastern Kansas. Over far northern Kansas, meager moisture available below 12kft lends to low confidence in rain showers developing across far northern Kansas this evening. Focusing over southeast KS, 06Z CAM guidance hinted at the position of the sfc trough being a bit further north and generating a line of showers and storms towards Anderson/Franklin counties. The 12Z guidance however is trending 50-100 miles east with convection initiating so confidence in development over has CWA has lowered. If storms were to enter the area around 12-15Z, they would be elevated with hail being the main concern through mid Wednesday morning. Only other system to watch enters far northern Kansas Thursday with low chances for showers and isolated thunder. Ensembles and operational guidance are not terribly excited with the amount of moisture with the wave, despite the upper level forcing being decent. Cooler air filters in behind the passing front by Thursday as temps drop back to near 70 degrees with occasional gusty winds Thursday afternoon. Elongated upper troughing spread across the central CONUS separates after Thursday, cutting off the upper low to our west and providing a much needed break from storm chances next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR at all terminals through the TAF period. Some high clouds will pass overhead tonight. Northwesterly, breezy wind will develop by the early afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Jones