Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 230844
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Midlevel low pressure continues to spin over the Great Basin and is
forecasted to lift northeastward today. Any associated vorticity
maximums rotating around the base of the trough and lifting out over
the plains have and should remain west of the area. A few convective
complexes have developed in eastern NM and there is a verly slight
chance any resulting MCVs or waves could lift northeastward towards
eastern KS. Therefore the environment today should lack synoptic
scale forcing. Day time heating is expected to be the a mechanism
for convective development across the area this afternoon. Also,
weak isentropic lift spreads northward out of OK late this morning,
which could support elevated convection within the 700 mb moisture
on the western periphery of the high over the mid MS valley. With
the lack of inhibition by early afternoon additional storms could
develop with a focus in east central and southeast KS. Most of the
CAMs support these storm chances, but confidence in the extent of
the coverage is low at this point. There is an overall lack of deep
layer shear to allow for long-lived updrafts, but the MLCAPE could
reach 2000 J/kg. If realized this could support small hail and
perhaps localized gusty winds when the cells collapse to the
surface. The convection should dissipate in the early evening with
the loss of surface heating. High temperatures today are forecasted
to reach the mid to upper 80s although depending on the storm and
associated cloud debris coverage the temperatures could be slightly
cooler than expected at some locations. With no major change in the
surface pattern wind speeds go light and variable tonight. Patchy
fog may be possible late tonight especially in low lying areas that
receive rain today, but the better chances are in MO closer to the
surface high. There are some signs that some isentropic lift could
develop late tonight over portions of central KS/NE, and convection
could be possible especially close to sunrise.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

On Thursday and Thursday night the upper level trough will move
across the northern Plains and into southern Ontario Canada. The
southern extent of the trough will extend south across the central
Plains. Once again on Thursday afternoon and unstable airmass is
expected to be in place with little convective inhibition in a weakly
sheared environment amidst steepening lapse rates. Isolated to
scattered pulse type convection is expected to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours with locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds as the main hazards. Overnight Thursday models continue to
hint at MCS development across Nebraska and northern Kansas with the
complex traversing east southeast across the cwa into Friday
morning. Good moisture transport initially across western Kansas
into central Nebraska is forecast to veer and across eastern Kansas
Thursday night should help to sustain the MCS as it tracks east
southeast and builds into the lower to mid level rich theta-e air,
therefore will continue with higher chances of precipitation.
Later Friday afternoon and evening additional storms are possible
along residual boundaries left over from the morning convection
and near a weakly defined surface boundary across south central
Nebraska into north central Kansas. Steep lapse rates are expected
to be in place and northwesterly flow aloft will enhance the
shear along the boundaries within an unstable air mass. A few
strong to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts and
large hail the main hazards.

For the Memorial Day weekend an upper level ridge will build across
the Plains as an upper level trough/low remains across the western
states. A moist airmass will continue to remain in place resulting
in some isolated thunderstorms possibly forming during the afternoon
and evening hours. On Tuesday some energy looks to move out of the
base of the trough and into north central Kansas increasing the
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to
remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late May with highs
in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There may be
some patchy ground fog tonight but no visibility restrictions are
expected.

|&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Heller



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