737
FXUS64 KTSA 050110
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
810 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The earlier thunderstorms that produced a few reports of hail up
to dime size in northwest AR this evening have moved out of the
forecast area, leaving us with a temporary lull. Regional radar
trends show showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across southwest and south central OK, and with the approach of
an upper level system later tonight this will expand further into
parts of eastern OK, primarily after Midnight, and become rather
widespread by morning. Sent an update earlier to remove POPs
through 03z, with the rest of the forecast unchanged.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the
area Sunday morning, shifting to the north and east with time
along with the movement of the upper level support. Some
redevelopment potential may exist during the late afternoon hours,
depending on how much instability can develop behind the earlier
batch of storms. Flash flooding will be the main concern, however,
given the widespread rains that could be locally heavy and the
antecedent conditions.

Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe
weather late Monday and into Monday night. Some data are
indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas early in the day in
response to increasing mid level moisture. However, do not think
it will be substantial enough to warrant the high POPs offered by
the NBM during the day and as a result, have cut back on those.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as late afternoon
but more likely early to mid evening along and ahead of an
approaching cold front/dryline. Areas north of I-40 continue to
look most likely to see thunderstorms given the main upper system
is located well north of the area. Even in areas further south,
however, the environment supports a high end severe threat with
any storm that develops. This threat looks to continue into the
overnight, waning toward Tuesday morning.

Additional mainly afternoon and evening storms remain expected
through mid week until the main upper level system finally shifts
east. These storms will also pose a severe weather threat,
although specifics may depend on how things evolve earlier in the
week. Expect cool and dry weather to move in late in the week and
into the weekend, likely a very welcome break for all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Initially VFR conditions will quickly lower to IFR late tonight
and early Sunday morning as widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms overspread the area. Conditions may begin to improve
by late Sunday afternoon, especially at KMLC where ceilings may
lift to MVFR after the rain ends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  70  61  82 /  70  90  20  30
FSM   65  73  63  83 /  60 100  30  30
MLC   63  72  64  82 /  80 100  20  30
BVO   54  68  58  81 /  60  90  20  30
FYV   60  72  62  82 /  50  90  40  30
BYV   60  70  60  80 /  30  90  50  30
MKO   61  70  61  80 /  70 100  20  30
MIO   56  68  60  80 /  50  80  30  30
F10   60  70  61  80 /  80  90  20  30
HHW   65  73  64  79 /  80  90  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05