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000
FXUS65 KTWC 112034
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
134 PM MST Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal readings expected through the weekend. A weak and dry weather
system passing through the region Friday will result in gusty
southwest winds. Thereafter, expect afternoon breezes each day into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ridging aloft dominates this afternoon with warm
temperatures as highs in Tucson approach 90 degrees.

The pattern shifts slightly on Friday as a weak shortwave
disturbance pushes through. This will be a dry system as is most
often the case for this time of year, however, it will increase the
gradient resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Widespread
sustained southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected Friday with
gusts to around 35 mph. This is below wind advisory thresholds but
the winds will certainly be noticeable. Temperatures Friday will
drop a few degrees compared to today.

A breezy pattern will continue through much of the forecast period.
Winds will be about 5 mph less on Saturday compared to Friday as
high temperatures remain a few degrees above normal. The next system
will approach Sunday and pass to our north on Monday. While the
moisture and mentionable PoPs remain to our north, breezes will
continue. The coolest day of the period will be Monday as a dry cold
front cools temperatures to around 10 degrees below normal. We`ll be
keeping an eye on low temperatures Tuesday morning in the coldest
valley locations of our forecast area such as the Sulphur Springs
Valley where the current forecast low is 36 degrees. The NBM gives a
19% chance of lows at 32 degrees or less.

Thereafter, warmer temperatures return rapidly with highs near
normal on Tuesday and then warming to above normal levels next
Wednesday and Thursday as dry westerly flow continues.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
SKC across a majority of SE Arizona for this forecast period with a
period of FEW-SCT clouds at or around 20-25k ft AGL along the
International Border between 12/01Z and 12/12Z. SFC winds generally
southerly to southeasterly at 8 to 12 kts through most of the period
and into the overnight. After 12/15z, SFC winds will be southerly to
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 18 knots with gusts up to 25-30
kts through the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal readings into this weekend. Minimum relative humidity 8 to 16
percent in valleys through Sunday. Gusty winds return Friday into
early next week as a couple of dry system move through the region to
the north. Localized areas could see brief critical to near critical
fire weather conditions on Friday and again, but fire danger and
ERCs are still low for this time of year.

&&

.CLIMATE...First 90 degree high date information for Tucson
Historical period (1895-2023): April 8th
Climatological normal period (1991-2020): March 30th
2023 1st date: April 10th

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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