Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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617 FXUS63 KUNR 012224 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 424 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool/unsettled weather continues through Friday -Warmer this weekend -Strong storm with wet/windy conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Water vapor shows broad upper lower southern ALTA/SASK and MT, with short wave ejecting from the Central Rockies. At the surface, inverted trof extends through eastern WY into northwest SD. Widespread -shra have been ongoing since early this morning across southwest through central SD. Showers and a few storms will continue to develop this afternoon and evening as short wave ejects northeast through the Northern Plains, with the best chance for widespread precipitation from the Black Hill eastward. Northwest winds will be on the increase as surface trof pushes through tonight. Precipitation should quickly end from west to east later this evening and overnight. Aforementioned upper low will slowly move eastward along the US/Canadian border through Friday. Should be plenty of subsidence on Thursday behind the departing short wave, although diurnal showers and a few storms will remain possible, especially from the Black Hills into northwest SD. Better chance for showers/storms on Friday will be from the Black Hills through southwest/south- central SD with arrival of next short wave. Both days will see breezy west/northwest winds and highs in 50s to lower 60s. Upper trof axis will finally shift through on Friday night with main upper low ejecting northeast towards the Hudson Bay. Upper ridge axis building in for Saturday will bring dry and warmer conditions to start the weekend. Upper ridge axis shifts east on Sunday as strong upper low digs into the Intermountain West. Gusty southerly winds will likely develop across the area Sunday with temps pushing well into the 70s at many locations. Showers/storms will become more likely Sunday afternoon across northeast WY into the Black Hills, spreading eastward Sunday night. Strong upper low will track through the Central Rockies and out into the Northern Plains by Monday before possibly getting cut-off from the main flow. The result will be wetter/cooler/windy conditions for early next week. Exact track of the low will determine how much precipitation we receive, and those details will likely become more clear with time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 419 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Light showers and some thunder will continue through late evening. Locally MVFR conditions can be expected near these showers and storms. Areas of MVFR/LCL IFR conditions will develop over parts of western and south central South Dakota after 06Z tonight. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from west to east after 16Z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...Wong