Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 250240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1040 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A mid-level low pressure system will bring a few flurries or
light snow showers to the area tonight, then dry weather will
return Sunday. Dry weather will continue into early next week
with a gradual warming trend.


As of 1030 pm, compact area of light snow over the central
Mohawk Valley has blossomed nicely in advance of a compact upper
wave pushing south into western NY, and is being enhanced by an
area of surface convergence between northeasterly and
northwesterly flow. This area of snowfall is fairly progressive
and should continue pushing south into the Schoharie Valley and
the Catskills through around 06Z, with up to a few tenths of an
inch of snowfall possible. Raised PoPs somewhat to account for
this activity. Elsewhere, midlevel moisture will increase from
the northeast after 06Z coincident with a backdoor wind shift
boundary, supporting the possibility of isolated to scattered
snow showers spreading northeast to southwest across much of the
region. Accumulations still generally expected to be little
more than a few tenths of an inch, except above 1500 feet in the
Greens, Berkshires, and Catskills, where up to an inch could

Previous discussion...For Tonight...A backdoor cold front will
be dropping into northern New York and northern New England as
an upper level area of low pressure dives southeast through
central New York. This area of low pressure has a very strong
vort max associated with it and despite a lack of moisture with
the system, there could be light snow accumulations of a few
tenths of an inch to perhaps an inch. The highest snowfall total
should be across the southern Green Mountains. Lows overnight
will be in the mid teens to mid 20s.


Any lingering snow showers should come to an end Sunday morning
followed by high pressure building into the region. The area of
high pressure will build across southern Canada with the ridge
axis extending southwest across our region by late Sunday night
and remain across our region through at least Monday night.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with some
upper 20s across the highest terrain. Lows Sunday night will be
in the mid teens to mid 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s with lows Monday night in the upper teens
to mid 20s.


Tranquil conditions early in the long term look short-lived, as
temporary mid/upper level tropospheric ridging breaks down and
shifts downstream into the western Atlantic, with a digging trough
developing upstream across the upper midwest and shifting east
toward the end of the week.

So mild and dry for Tuesday, with some clouds increasing late in the
day. Highs mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s in valleys, and upper
30s to mid 40s for higher terrain.

The first in a series of upper level features approaching from the
west should bring some rain showers to the region late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. However, this initial upper level feature looks to
be weakening, so shower coverage could become limited as it tracks
farther east. It should remain fairly mild ahead of a weakening cold
front, with Wednesday highs reaching the 40s and 50s. Tuesday night
lows may occur early, with upper 20s to mid 30s, before potentially
rising later at night. If precipitation arrives sooner than
currently indicated, there could be a brief wintry mix across
portions of the Adirondacks and higher terrain areas of the

A stronger piece of upper level energy may approach from the
west/southwest for Thursday night into Saturday. A strengthening
low/mid level baroclinic zone, coupled with increasing southern
stream moisture could allow for widespread moderate to locally heavy
precipitation to develop during this time period if enough phasing
of upper level energy occurs. Depending on where the aforementioned
baroclinic zone sets up, there could be rain, or rain/snow mix
changing to snow, especially across the Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley region late Friday into Saturday. As always, trends will need
to be watched, and there certainly remains a possibility that
phasing of upper level features do not time quite right, which would
allow for a less organized period of precipitation for the region.

For now, expect temperatures to average slightly above seasonal
levels for Thursday-Friday, trending below normal for Saturday.
Highs should reach the mid 40s to lower 50s for lower elevations,
and mid 30s to lower 40s across higher terrain Thursday and Friday,
with highs mainly in the 30s for higher elevations, and lower/mid
40s across valley areas on Saturday. However, much cooler max temps
will be possible Friday if widespread steady precipitation occurs.
Overnight lows should mainly be in the 30s, except 20s for some
higher terrain areas Friday night.


A few flurries are possible early this evening along localized
convergence zones north of KPOU, with flight restrictions not
expected. Midlevel moisture will increase late tonight from the
northeast coincident with a weak backdoor wind shift boundary
at the surface, bringing the possibility of isolated to
scattered snow showers. Not enough confidence to go with
anything more than a VCSH mention at this time, although brief
vsby restrictions are possible in any more robust snow shower.
This activity should be south of the terminals by 13Z at the
latest, and another day of prevailing VFR conditions is
expected as high pressure noses in from the north.

Winds will be from the west to northwest at KALB/KPSF and north
to northeast at KPOU/KGFL early tonight at 5 to 10 kt. A weak
wind shift boundary will cause winds to veer to the north-
northeast after 06Z at KALB/KPSF at around 5 to 10 kt. Winds
will remain out of the north-northeast at around 10 kt on


Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.


A mid-level low pressure system will bring a few flurries or
light snow showers to the area tonight, then dry weather will
return Sunday. Dry weather will continue into early next week
with a gradual warming trend.


No hydrologic issues are anticipated into the middle of next
week, as mainly dry weather is expected. Isolated to scattered
snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning, with
light accumulations possible.

A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days,
with temperatures above freezing during the day and below
freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways
with minimal, if any, rises.

A moderating trend is then expected for the middle to latter
part of the upcoming work week, which may be accompanied by a
period of widespread rainfall. Runoff will likely increase
during this time, although it is uncertain how much rainfall
will occur. River rises are likely during this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




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